{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M03HYH31TRAEPAXQ",
    "slug": "nvdax-trades-72-5bps-below-the-nvda-reference-price-2026-08-15-203124",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "NVDAx trades -72.5bps below the NVDA reference price",
    "dek": "Token price diverges -72.5bps from the reference equity price.",
    "summary": "NVDAx trades at -72.5bps versus the NVDA reference price. Circulating supply is 321,577.759 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,965,055 across 30 pools. The five largest token accounts hold 70.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $498,197 implies 0.17x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
    "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges -72.5bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
    "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_nvdax",
        "symbol": "NVDAx",
        "name": "NVIDIA xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
        "referenceTicker": "NVDA",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "nvdax",
      "solana",
      "market",
      "premium-divergence"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-15T08:31:09.877Z",
      "end": "2026-08-15T20:31:04.599Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-15T20:31:04.599Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "NVDAx trades at -72.5bps versus the NVDA reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -72.5,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -9.528879911722115
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T20:31:04.599Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203102853Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203104517Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T203104526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T203104599Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 321,577.759 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 321577.75905896,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 321577.75905896,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T20:31:04.599Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203102853Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203104517Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T203104526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T203104599Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,965,055 across 30 pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 2965055,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 2959287
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T20:31:04.599Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203102853Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203104517Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T203104526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T203104599Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 70.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.7070886702575723,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.7070886702575723
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T20:31:04.599Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203102853Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203104517Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T203104526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T203104599Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $498,197 implies 0.17x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 498197,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T20:31:04.599Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203102853Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203104517Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T203104526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T203104599Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203102853Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "NVDAx token supply at slot 439503329",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T20:31:02.853Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:c07a949a8b26d417b00d565a5335e9457d7047318fa1d533245341b6a8849641",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203104517Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "NVDAx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T20:31:04.517Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:96b0bf4f848deb352fa629e8ddec22397e50058adc4dffa9ddb045e9d8c44970",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T203104526Z",
        "sourceId": "dexscreener",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "NVDAx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
        "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T20:31:04.526Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:79b7c74220c6cdcb6c501bb67dfffb04408fc1cb58aff382900f06f80a22d2c5",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T203104599Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "NVDAx token price and NVDA reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T20:31:04.599Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:7a485464b55665ee41ab5e0c047162c6efa5a7a5bcd1d54fe86ed25bf01a6d5e",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "NVDAx circulating supply is 321,577.759 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203102853Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203104517Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T203104526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T203104599Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "NVDAx trades at -72.5bps versus the NVDA reference price ($223.1194554466824 vs $224.7484).",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203102853Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203104517Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T203104526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T203104599Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.9
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $2,965,055 with $498,197 of 24h volume across 30 pools.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203102853Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203104517Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T203104526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T203104599Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.88
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The discount is consistent with net token selling pressure while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should close when primary-market creation is active.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203102853Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T203104517Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T203104526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T203104599Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.7,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.7 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.24,
          "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "cross_venue_conflicts",
          "contribution": -0.1,
          "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.02,
          "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
      "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
    "provenance": {
      "runId": "run_01M03HXXJJN55GG6BC",
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    "distribution": []
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