{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M03HC92YYYYC6RFX",
    "slug": "crclx-trades-29bps-above-the-crcl-reference-price-2026-08-15-202126",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "CRCLx trades +29bps above the CRCL reference price",
    "dek": "Token price diverges 29bps from the reference equity price.",
    "summary": "CRCLx trades at +29bps versus the CRCL reference price. Circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,457,222 across ? pools. The five largest token accounts hold 54.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $347,611 implies 0.14x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
    "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges 29bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
    "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_crclx",
        "symbol": "CRCLx",
        "name": "Circle xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "referenceTicker": "CRCL",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "crclx",
      "solana",
      "market",
      "premium-divergence"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-15T08:21:04.450Z",
      "end": "2026-08-15T20:21:07.549Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:07.549Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "CRCLx trades at +29bps versus the CRCL reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": 29,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": 46.09382384038947
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:07.549Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202102772Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202103464Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202107549Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202055504Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 821079.76787519,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 821079.76787519,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:07.549Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202102772Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202103464Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202107549Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202055504Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,457,222 across ? pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 2457222,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 2471097
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:07.549Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202102772Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202103464Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202107549Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202055504Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 54.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.5428681737806202,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.5428681737806202
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:07.549Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202102772Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202103464Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202107549Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202055504Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $347,611 implies 0.14x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 347611,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:07.549Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202102772Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202103464Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202107549Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202055504Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202102772Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "CRCLx token supply at slot 439501885",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:02.772Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:74983f876ccc46d23f3c6bc02ea0bc460f04f6d95af4eecc783ea3ec1f267eaa",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202103464Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "CRCLx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:03.464Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:9c4c29f381e3e9806efc6ea1284cd5bd3e8801d26b3b83bc60a650b28bcfa8a6",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202107549Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:07.549Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:80567ee49f023e38021bf613f6159b89150e39a5ab3a1a724fd14b7e4f4c02aa",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202055504Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "CRCLx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T20:20:55.504Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:28c7a932752487daa9b28b7e82a4f380b834445cfe89e1b8693047420df6e8c4",
        "reliability": "medium",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "CRCLx circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202102772Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202103464Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202107549Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202055504Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "CRCLx trades at +29bps versus the CRCL reference price ($71.20575731609746 vs $71).",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202102772Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202103464Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202107549Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202055504Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.9
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $2,457,222 with $347,611 of 24h volume across 0 pools.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202102772Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202103464Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202107549Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202055504Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.88
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The positive premium is consistent with net token demand while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should compress when primary-market redemption is active.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202102772Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T202103464Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202107549Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T202055504Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.64,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.64 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.16,
          "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "source_outages",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.02,
          "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
      "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
      "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
    "provenance": {
      "runId": "run_01M03HBPH44H5HZV15",
      "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
      "modelRecords": [
        {
          "provider": "heuristic",
          "model": "deterministic-templates",
          "purpose": "synthesis",
          "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
          "completedAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:22.369Z"
        },
        {
          "provider": "heuristic",
          "model": "deterministic-templates",
          "purpose": "verification",
          "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
          "completedAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:26.325Z"
        }
      ],
      "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:79cda165993c1597931152f630a02cf19e6dac63368e1a3c0c0da9f4826108ad",
      "contentHash": "sha256:aab6e3a2cd15f9612ddc67fc9209c0790fba5097a00366329e5155b7f925c7ba"
    },
    "publication": {
      "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/crclx-trades-29bps-above-the-crcl-reference-price-2026-08-15-202126",
      "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:26.750Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T20:21:26.750Z"
    },
    "distribution": []
  },
  "meta": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "generatedAt": "2026-08-15T22:03:06.247Z"
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/research/metis_0101M03HC92YYYYC6RFX",
    "schema": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/schema"
  }
}