{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M03FN8A6X17G681J",
    "slug": "crclx-trades-36-5bps-above-the-crcl-reference-price-2026-08-15-195123",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "CRCLx trades +36.5bps above the CRCL reference price",
    "dek": "Token price diverges 36.5bps from the reference equity price.",
    "summary": "CRCLx trades at +36.5bps versus the CRCL reference price. Circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $5,009,037 across 27 pools. The five largest token accounts hold 54.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $480,372 implies 0.1x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
    "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges 36.5bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
    "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_crclx",
        "symbol": "CRCLx",
        "name": "Circle xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "referenceTicker": "CRCL",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "crclx",
      "solana",
      "market",
      "premium-divergence"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-15T07:51:08.062Z",
      "end": "2026-08-15T19:51:03.877Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-15T19:51:03.877Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "CRCLx trades at +36.5bps versus the CRCL reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": 36.5,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": 47.73244429069922
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T19:51:03.877Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103150Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103791Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T195103802Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T195103877Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 821079.76787519,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 821079.76787519,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T19:51:03.877Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103150Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103791Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T195103802Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T195103877Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $5,009,037 across 27 pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 5009037,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 5012313
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T19:51:03.877Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103150Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103791Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T195103802Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T195103877Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 54.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.5428681737806202,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.5428681737806202
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T19:51:03.877Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103150Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103791Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T195103802Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T195103877Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $480,372 implies 0.1x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 480372,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T19:51:03.877Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103150Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103791Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T195103802Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T195103877Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103150Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "CRCLx token supply at slot 439497573",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T19:51:03.150Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:86fd2d7643f9e6494be200fa2ab07c419271e94de1945fbf571d5e4f9024fd62",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103791Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "CRCLx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T19:51:03.791Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:982745dafc95014332f867283bf62a26e130bf157599f9004179599549d8faa5",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T195103802Z",
        "sourceId": "dexscreener",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "CRCLx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T19:51:03.802Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:e1bc1bff48293e81898e4cf4e3770f03ca48f205045708af0d7e4cfabf5ee189",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T195103877Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T19:51:03.877Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:c85a728515eda8b0d4803451f9d968a0328eee9fd462febefed04158e4a1c239",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "CRCLx circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103150Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103791Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T195103802Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T195103877Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "CRCLx trades at +36.5bps versus the CRCL reference price ($71.25904139686135 vs $71).",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103150Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103791Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T195103802Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T195103877Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.9
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $5,009,037 with $480,372 of 24h volume across 27 pools.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103150Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103791Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T195103802Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T195103877Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.88
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The positive premium is consistent with net token demand while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should compress when primary-market redemption is active.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103150Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T195103791Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T195103802Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T195103877Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.88,
      "band": "high",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.88 (high).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.24,
          "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.02,
          "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
      "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
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      "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:01ef094aa51bd8ec091585bd72bc82d8988f102a94eb1ef38985a35a279966bf",
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