{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M03DC8DDPK9TK4V2",
    "slug": "hoodx-trades-359-2bps-above-the-hood-reference-price-2026-08-15-191131",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "HOODx trades +359.2bps above the HOOD reference price",
    "dek": "Token price diverges 359.2bps from the reference equity price.",
    "summary": "HOODx trades at +359.2bps versus the HOOD reference price. Circulating supply is 597,392.589 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $309,124 across ? pools. The five largest token accounts hold 94% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $5,197 implies 0.02x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
    "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges 359.2bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
    "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_hoodx",
        "symbol": "HOODx",
        "name": "Robinhood xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "hoodx",
      "solana",
      "market",
      "premium-divergence"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-15T07:11:12.523Z",
      "end": "2026-08-15T19:11:12.490Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:12.490Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "HOODx trades at +359.2bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": 359.2,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": 164.51658995969
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:12.490Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108087Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108425Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191112490Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191055440Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.589 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 597392.58927201,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 597392.58927201,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:12.490Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108087Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108425Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191112490Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191055440Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $309,124 across ? pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 309124,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 309357
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:12.490Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108087Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108425Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191112490Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191055440Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.9396366411812641,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.9396366411812641
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:12.490Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108087Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108425Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191112490Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191055440Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $5,197 implies 0.02x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 5197,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:12.490Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108087Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108425Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191112490Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191055440Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108087Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439491826",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:08.087Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:62ce58207382cfa4579884581902c449f2f6bae6a136382bd4f558bd3d57f2dd",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108425Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:08.425Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:18f76886f5bc99f1c0334c15fd93f4b9b35055174f16fea84561b73600d512b2",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191112490Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:12.490Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:267031b7f4c16aba4c95ebfdbc39f469ae99fac2c04f441a938316984d6c5582",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191055440Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ,XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ,XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T19:10:55.440Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:fc13a4c2cd02985ad4ae3766caaa3b9f43f7e0b9b11cab214ceb899ccb1f0213",
        "reliability": "medium",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "HOODx circulating supply is 597,392.589 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108087Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108425Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191112490Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191055440Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "HOODx trades at +359.2bps versus the HOOD reference price ($98.95067318147531 vs $95.52).",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108087Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108425Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191112490Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191055440Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.9
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $309,124 with $5,197 of 24h volume across 0 pools.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108087Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108425Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191112490Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191055440Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.88
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The positive premium is consistent with net token demand while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should compress when primary-market redemption is active.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108087Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T191108425Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191112490Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T191055440Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.64,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.64 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.16,
          "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "source_outages",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.02,
          "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "material",
    "limitations": [
      "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
      "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
      "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
    "provenance": {
      "runId": "run_01M03DBNSDX1DB6ZW7",
      "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
      "modelRecords": [
        {
          "provider": "heuristic",
          "model": "deterministic-templates",
          "purpose": "synthesis",
          "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
          "completedAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:27.513Z"
        },
        {
          "provider": "heuristic",
          "model": "deterministic-templates",
          "purpose": "verification",
          "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
          "completedAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:31.328Z"
        }
      ],
      "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:500a2e7716ac99462ea8769d7ae4a7f47da3cd0ba319f7812af37d6bf1559042",
      "contentHash": "sha256:f4db2f42524d0efc5583591656722542e991d9715167ff31886006bac2179b46"
    },
    "publication": {
      "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-trades-359-2bps-above-the-hood-reference-price-2026-08-15-191131",
      "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:31.757Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T19:11:31.757Z"
    },
    "distribution": []
  },
  "meta": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "generatedAt": "2026-08-15T20:58:07.983Z"
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/research/metis_0101M03DC8DDPK9TK4V2",
    "schema": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/schema"
  }
}