{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M02SB7MYNY4H8JMC",
    "slug": "crclx-trades-41-2bps-above-the-crcl-reference-price-2026-08-15-132126",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "CRCLx trades +41.2bps above the CRCL reference price",
    "dek": "Token price diverges 41.2bps from the reference equity price.",
    "summary": "CRCLx trades at +41.2bps versus the CRCL reference price. Circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,480,047 across ? pools. The five largest token accounts hold 54.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $3,307,665 implies 1.33x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
    "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges 41.2bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
    "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_crclx",
        "symbol": "CRCLx",
        "name": "Circle xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "referenceTicker": "CRCL",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "crclx",
      "solana",
      "market",
      "premium-divergence"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-15T01:21:02.311Z",
      "end": "2026-08-15T13:21:07.498Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:07.498Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "CRCLx trades at +41.2bps versus the CRCL reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": 41.2,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": 68.25010843246461
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:07.498Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132102737Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132103403Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132107498Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132055587Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 821079.76835368,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 821079.76835368,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:07.498Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132102737Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132103403Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132107498Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132055587Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,480,047 across ? pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 2480047,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 2486246
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:07.498Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132102737Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132103403Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132107498Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132055587Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 54.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.5428600946123315,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.5428600946123315
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:07.498Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132102737Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132103403Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132107498Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132055587Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,307,665 implies 1.33x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 3307665,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:07.498Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132102737Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132103403Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132107498Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132055587Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132102737Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "CRCLx token supply at slot 439441319",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:02.737Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:9af573c71b696627e7c05d8732d23259d7601c8729cbf3070d8f62ae36417e8b",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132103403Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "CRCLx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:03.403Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:ecfcabab0fefe90291ed8ccf77f003ee8d01aac1590abcfff5a09a0c52b97539",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132107498Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:07.498Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:0ef3df458d769c47a961e0355502b65f74fd7fa7f2f4926fd8442473c97c140a",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132055587Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "CRCLx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T13:20:55.587Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:f4d6f7fb6e28439aa87765ffe2a755e17d8a4b6838f4b60a8f439c0bfc6886ae",
        "reliability": "medium",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "CRCLx circulating supply is 821,079.768 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132102737Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132103403Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132107498Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132055587Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "CRCLx trades at +41.2bps versus the CRCL reference price ($71.29272590181202 vs $71).",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132102737Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132103403Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132107498Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132055587Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.9
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $2,480,047 with $3,307,665 of 24h volume across 0 pools.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132102737Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132103403Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132107498Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132055587Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.88
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The positive premium is consistent with net token demand while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should compress when primary-market redemption is active.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132102737Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T132103403Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132107498Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T132055587Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.64,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.64 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.16,
          "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "source_outages",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.02,
          "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
      "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
      "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
    "provenance": {
      "runId": "run_01M02SAN3E0WRD9WE0",
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          "completedAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:22.613Z"
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      ],
      "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:1d0871c8f7156c13b137014554d40249bc0606895c2c2a8608dfe395f4ecf0a1",
      "contentHash": "sha256:17a5f431fb7c3c090c021ad3327f32938254e6f3ed56481a8bd91666ca0c41bb"
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      "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:26.686Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T13:21:26.686Z"
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    "distribution": []
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    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "generatedAt": "2026-08-15T14:57:59.736Z"
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