{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M02QM337EJMEHE5A",
    "slug": "spcxx-trades-152-5bps-below-the-spcx-reference-price-2026-08-15-125119",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "SPCXx trades -152.5bps below the SPCX reference price",
    "dek": "Token price diverges -152.5bps from the reference equity price.",
    "summary": "SPCXx trades at -152.5bps versus the SPCX reference price. Circulating supply is 559,998.403 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $783,288 across ? pools. The five largest token accounts hold 85.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $2,230,405 implies 2.85x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
    "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges -152.5bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
    "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_spcxx",
        "symbol": "SPCXx",
        "name": "SpaceX xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "spcxx",
      "solana",
      "market",
      "premium-divergence"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-15T00:51:00.130Z",
      "end": "2026-08-15T12:51:00.323Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-15T12:51:00.323Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "SPCXx trades at -152.5bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -152.5,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -98.69118012960494
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T12:51:00.323Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125055753Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125056246Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125100323Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125055413Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.403 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 559998.40318121,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 559998.40318121,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T12:51:00.323Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125055753Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125056246Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125100323Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125055413Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $783,288 across ? pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 783288,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 774832
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T12:51:00.323Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125055753Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125056246Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125100323Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125055413Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 85.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.8565295791375644,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.8565295791375644
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T12:51:00.323Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125055753Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125056246Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125100323Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125055413Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $2,230,405 implies 2.85x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 2230405,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T12:51:00.323Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125055753Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125056246Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125100323Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125055413Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125055753Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439436958",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T12:50:55.753Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:1da7510eefe6517d5cca420bd29fef074e143df4dfac0b5115d0d74bd1befd18",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125056246Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T12:50:56.246Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:4f4c184a530305da733e834c8dfc1e535ea98aaa822243f09bcf473915e2f956",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125100323Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T12:51:00.323Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:4dbf7bde89109f5c1f1c8bcf939a0ea6692723817e0aeb702dd056f9771aa45b",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125055413Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "SPCXx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T12:50:55.413Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:3036a3258047d244aabb08a58ca30327194bda1ab8c7f49a15ad125fb07f49e1",
        "reliability": "medium",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "SPCXx circulating supply is 559,998.403 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125055753Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125056246Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125100323Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125055413Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "SPCXx trades at -152.5bps versus the SPCX reference price ($138.417695584073 vs $140.5615).",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125055753Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125056246Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125100323Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125055413Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.9
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $783,288 with $2,230,405 of 24h volume across 0 pools.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125055753Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125056246Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125100323Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125055413Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.88
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The discount is consistent with net token selling pressure while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should close when primary-market creation is active.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125055753Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T125056246Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125100323Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T125055413Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.64,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.64 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.16,
          "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "source_outages",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.02,
          "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "material",
    "limitations": [
      "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
      "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
      "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
    "provenance": {
      "runId": "run_01M02QKG90DK0RJB2X",
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      "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:3d4d8a93b77de7064c71747b7ac5852fdcdce874e561bac8ab83c687eec183be",
      "contentHash": "sha256:ee7c8a6e55e99ac6e0506a38930c4cff9fe05780bc1edf5e5dd0fdcdc87054ff"
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      "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T12:51:19.783Z"
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    "distribution": []
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    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "generatedAt": "2026-08-15T14:55:15.188Z"
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