{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M02PFQZTDH4G7971",
    "slug": "nvdax-trades-31-6bps-below-the-nvda-reference-price-2026-08-15-123128",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "NVDAx trades -31.6bps below the NVDA reference price",
    "dek": "Token price diverges -31.6bps from the reference equity price.",
    "summary": "NVDAx trades at -31.6bps versus the NVDA reference price. Circulating supply is 321,577.76 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,020,037 across ? pools. The five largest token accounts hold 70.8% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $739,155 implies 0.37x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
    "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges -31.6bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
    "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_nvdax",
        "symbol": "NVDAx",
        "name": "NVIDIA xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
        "referenceTicker": "NVDA",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "nvdax",
      "solana",
      "market",
      "premium-divergence"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-15T00:31:07.152Z",
      "end": "2026-08-15T12:31:08.593Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-15T12:31:08.593Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "NVDAx trades at -31.6bps versus the NVDA reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -31.6,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -15.098826765666956
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T12:31:08.593Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123102831Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123104524Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123108593Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123055441Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 321,577.76 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 321577.75985543,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 321577.75985543,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T12:31:08.593Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123102831Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123104524Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123108593Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123055441Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,020,037 across ? pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 2020037,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 2015265
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T12:31:08.593Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123102831Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123104524Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123108593Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123055441Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 70.8% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.7075205811773061,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.7075205811773061
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T12:31:08.593Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123102831Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123104524Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123108593Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123055441Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $739,155 implies 0.37x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 739155,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T12:31:08.593Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123102831Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123104524Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123108593Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123055441Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123102831Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "NVDAx token supply at slot 439434094",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T12:31:02.831Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:1b917844d976591a77df785884e4690196473cd7dd89b7d82841daa9963ccea7",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123104524Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "NVDAx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T12:31:04.524Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:c78f24f6a1ddc5d6b65f54127a99fec753289de19454bab66d58cb3bcea7a56d",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123108593Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "NVDAx token price and NVDA reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T12:31:08.593Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:7980ba9c3e2c34637435a67bec176f50dff2e70fdf03a33425087f4e36002980",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123055441Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "NVDAx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=XsDoVfqeBukxuZHWhdvWHBhgEHjGNst4MLodqsJHzoB,Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh,XsoCS1TfEyfFhfvj8EtZ528L3CaKBDBRqRapnBbDF2W",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T12:30:55.441Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:0aa9d495d66eb4e6d29287764668bf91f79fff5a90e5cd123248b9c544a9cb57",
        "reliability": "medium",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "NVDAx circulating supply is 321,577.76 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123102831Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123104524Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123108593Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123055441Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "NVDAx trades at -31.6bps versus the NVDA reference price ($224.03877026975223 vs $224.7484).",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123102831Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123104524Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123108593Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123055441Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.9
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $2,020,037 with $739,155 of 24h volume across 0 pools.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123102831Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123104524Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123108593Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123055441Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.88
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The discount is consistent with net token selling pressure while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should close when primary-market creation is active.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123102831Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T123104524Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123108593Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T123055441Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.64,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.64 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.16,
          "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "source_outages",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.02,
          "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
      "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
      "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
    "provenance": {
      "runId": "run_01M02PF4FN3ENM2XBZ",
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      ],
      "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:651b59fefc3ca89bc63647e922197b87265853545051a3c2a537e488174a8ec5",
      "contentHash": "sha256:bff0c895b89e8bbb49daf2be0efd208f4a02313d87ac44b9c49f7aa12b7d5c00"
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      "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T12:31:28.762Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T12:31:28.762Z"
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    "distribution": []
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    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "generatedAt": "2026-08-15T14:11:39.440Z"
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