{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M02B18PGHZ1F0GDA",
    "slug": "qqqx-trades-27-3bps-below-the-qqq-reference-price-2026-08-15-091120",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "QQQx trades -27.3bps below the QQQ reference price",
    "dek": "Token price diverges -27.3bps from the reference equity price.",
    "summary": "QQQx trades at -27.3bps versus the QQQ reference price. Circulating supply is 84,591.94 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation). Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,268,975 across ? pools. The five largest token accounts hold 81.2% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included). 24h DEX volume of $311,233 implies 0.14x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
    "thesis": "The leading signal this cycle is premium divergence (Token price diverges -27.3bps from the reference equity price.) The measurements below are source-verified; interpretation is limited to what the evidence supports.",
    "whyItMatters": "Tokenized equities trade continuously while their reference markets do not. Divergence, liquidity, and activity shifts quantify what that continuous access costs or earns.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_qqqx",
        "symbol": "QQQx",
        "name": "Nasdaq xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ",
        "referenceTicker": "QQQ",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "qqqx",
      "solana",
      "market",
      "premium-divergence"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-14T21:11:01.267Z",
      "end": "2026-08-15T09:11:00.704Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-15T09:11:00.704Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "QQQx trades at -27.3bps versus the QQQ reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -27.3,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -15.168304766295115
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T09:11:00.704Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056144Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056587Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091100704Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091055799Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 84,591.94 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 84591.93980405,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 84591.93980405,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T09:11:00.704Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056144Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056587Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091100704Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091055799Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $2,268,975 across ? pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 2268975,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 2274342
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T09:11:00.704Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056144Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056587Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091100704Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091055799Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 81.2% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.8116948734806368,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.8116948734806368
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T09:11:00.704Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056144Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056587Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091100704Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091055799Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $311,233 implies 0.14x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 311233,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T09:11:00.704Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056144Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056587Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091100704Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091055799Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056144Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "QQQx token supply at slot 439405189",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T09:10:56.144Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:84278a949f6be68a76c0e64e9dcb29fba8a662a77e375eb9f51a29593af467ae",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056587Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "QQQx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T09:10:56.587Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:df77d01aaedd27e97b12b0ca8c759b9f0250c15066979c4d96db6fa27a2e8e33",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091100704Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "QQQx token price and QQQ reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T09:11:00.704Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:45a8d6083fd92017f300596fc55ffd9fb429cfbd2b84471820a3af44929f54e8",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091055799Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "QQQx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ,XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ,XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T09:10:55.799Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:0013954bd0b4ac027d1f26e2fc91340d1fed848af5fe557eda28b66085e71158",
        "reliability": "medium",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "QQQx circulating supply is 84,591.94 tokens, verified against Solana RPC.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056144Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056587Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091100704Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091055799Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "QQQx trades at -27.3bps versus the QQQ reference price ($728.8568155611912 vs $730.85).",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056144Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056587Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091100704Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091055799Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.9
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity is $2,268,975 with $311,233 of 24h volume across 0 pools.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056144Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056587Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091100704Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091055799Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.88
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The discount is consistent with net token selling pressure while reference-market arbitrage is constrained; it should close when primary-market creation is active.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056144Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T091056587Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091100704Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T091055799Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "The gap persisting through active primary-market sessions would contradict the arbitrage-constraint reading."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.64,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.64 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.16,
          "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "source_outages",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.02,
          "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "This object was synthesized by deterministic templates from verified metrics, not a language model.",
      "Reference prices republished by the price service may lag the primary market.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
      "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
    "provenance": {
      "runId": "run_01M02B0P12ZPR4AKN0",
      "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0",
      "modelRecords": [
        {
          "provider": "heuristic",
          "model": "deterministic-templates",
          "purpose": "synthesis",
          "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
          "completedAt": "2026-08-15T09:11:15.485Z"
        },
        {
          "provider": "heuristic",
          "model": "deterministic-templates",
          "purpose": "verification",
          "promptVersion": "heuristic-1",
          "completedAt": "2026-08-15T09:11:19.318Z"
        }
      ],
      "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:379704d3ee18ba85a14627af1ea49ab77af355a3bd67aa0c9165e65a39a9af16",
      "contentHash": "sha256:ac80b229c12ee44acd389c962441937db269b73af91635944cee7a87d99c16f6"
    },
    "publication": {
      "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/qqqx-trades-27-3bps-below-the-qqq-reference-price-2026-08-15-091120",
      "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T09:11:20.016Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-08-15T09:11:20.016Z"
    },
    "distribution": []
  },
  "meta": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "generatedAt": "2026-08-15T11:02:49.985Z"
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/research/metis_0101M02B18PGHZ1F0GDA",
    "schema": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/schema"
  }
}