{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M01XB77F91CB2NGY",
    "slug": "hoodx-premium-spikes-to-184bps-as-liquidity-thins-and-concentration-rema",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "HOODx Premium Spikes to 184bps as Liquidity Thins and Concentration Remains Near 94%",
    "dek": "Token trades 184 basis points above Robinhood reference price amid $439K liquidity, 94% supply concentration, and 0.1x daily turnover.",
    "summary": "HOODx exhibits a material premium of 183.6 basis points over its reference equity price, with price sources disagreeing by 84bps. The token shows extreme supply concentration with top five holders controlling 93.96% of supply. Liquidity stands at $438,997 across 11 pools, generating $45,633 in 24-hour volume (0.1x turnover). Transaction activity shows 16 trades in the past hour and 1,862 over 24 hours, while the token price declined 2.09% over the past day.",
    "thesis": "The persistent high premium and extreme supply concentration indicate structural market inefficiencies and potential manipulation risks, while thinning liquidity amplifies price discovery challenges.",
    "whyItMatters": "Extreme holder concentration and price-source divergence expose investors to elevated execution risk and potential mispricing, undermining the token's utility as an equity proxy.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_hoodx",
        "symbol": "HOODx",
        "name": "Robinhood xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "HOODx",
      "premium-divergence",
      "liquidity-risk",
      "concentration-risk",
      "price-discovery",
      "market-inefficiency"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-14T17:11:12.539Z",
      "end": "2026-08-15T05:11:00.292Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-15T05:11:00.292Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "HOODx trades at +183.6bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": 183.6,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": 79.55800103490846
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T05:11:00.292Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.603 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 597392.60336316,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 597392.60336316,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T05:11:00.292Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $438,997 across 11 pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 438997,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 448151
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T05:11:00.292Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.939636959897194,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.939636959897194
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T05:11:00.292Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $45,633 implies 0.1x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 45633,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-15T05:11:00.292Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439370554",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T05:10:59.938Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:58abd5ba101400b436ac5238c3210063d8caa181002e7ea89ead7af7a4c1c597",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T05:11:00.240Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:f07458fa4204a6d456abb209aebfc6f0498fa4b1386082ab4be209ab3b186463",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
        "sourceId": "dexscreener",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T05:11:00.247Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:ed0ff2ec23c6ef5402cede0c2e9d9aea719269eddba99136a686189dd79908f9",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-15T05:11:00.292Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:c481b2c14a784a59da4fd4df1ad695ca1959bccd41c486491ee7240501583d2d",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "HOODx currently trades at a premium of 183.6 basis points above the Robinhood reference price of $95.52.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 93.96% of the total supply of 597,392.603 tokens.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $45,633.39 represents a 0.104x turnover ratio against current liquidity of $438,996.98.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "Price sources disagree by 84 basis points: Jupiter reports $97.27335043442424 while the top DEX pool shows $96.46.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "The token price declined 2.09% over the past 24 hours.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "Premium volatility over the 11.5-hour baseline ranged from -61.1 to +241.8 basis points, indicating significant market instability.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Premium remains stable within a 50bps band over the next 24 hours",
          "Reference price volatility exceeds token price volatility"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_7",
        "statement": "The combination of 93.96% supply concentration and 184bps premium suggests potential for coordinated price influence by large holders.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051059938Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-15T051100240Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-15T051100247Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-15T051100292Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Top holders prove to be passive liquidity providers with no trading activity",
          "Premium correlates directly with underlying equity volatility rather than holder behavior"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.68,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.68 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.24,
          "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "cross_venue_conflicts",
          "contribution": -0.1,
          "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.04,
          "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "material",
    "limitations": [
      "Baseline spans only 11.5 hours, limiting assessment of longer-term trends",
      "Liquidity distribution across 11 pools is unknown; concentration may vary significantly by venue",
      "Top holder identities and intentions are not disclosed, preventing assessment of their trading behavior",
      "Reference price sourcing methodology and update frequency are not specified",
      "No order book depth data beyond aggregate liquidity figures",
      "Failed data sources may indicate intermittent quality issues affecting metric reliability",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
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