{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M015W97WB8EAXF7N",
    "slug": "spcxx-trades-at-30bps-discount-with-85-6-supply-concentration-2026-08-14",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "SPCXx Trades at -30bps Discount with 85.6% Supply Concentration",
    "dek": "Tokenized SpaceX equity shows high holder concentration and premium volatility over 11.5-hour baseline, with $3.8M daily volume turning liquidity 4.9x",
    "summary": "SPCXx trades at a 30.2 basis point discount to its reference price, with the top five holders controlling 85.6% of the 560k token supply. Over the past 24 hours, the token price declined 1.53% despite significant premium volatility ranging from -304 to +69 bps across the observation period. Liquidity stands at $780k, generating $3.8M in daily volume for a 4.88x turnover ratio. The high concentration and persistent discount suggest liquidity risk concerns.",
    "thesis": "SPCXx exhibits structural liquidity constraints due to extreme supply concentration, creating persistent discount volatility and high turnover ratios that indicate elevated trading friction.",
    "whyItMatters": "Extreme holder concentration creates fundamental liquidity risk for tokenized equity, as evidenced by volatile premiums and high volume-to-liquidity ratios, potentially undermining price discovery and fair value representation.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_spcxx",
        "symbol": "SPCXx",
        "name": "SpaceX xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "SPCXx",
      "tokenized-equity",
      "liquidity-risk",
      "concentration",
      "premium-volatility",
      "market-structure"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-14T10:21:00.625Z",
      "end": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "SPCXx trades at -30.2bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -30.2,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -25.624350497944874
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.421 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 559998.4211348,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 559998.4211348,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $780,167 across ? pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 780167,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 758820
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 85.6% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.8557437593125388,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.8557437593125388
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,808,153 implies 4.88x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 3808153,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439311377",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:20:56.008Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:291ca3b8725dfb59e31c0b083f044e193b926d8e3af450219b757632ade57e67",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:20:56.415Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:fdf9becee785d5f0f369ab9c2c91ca9df5fca580e01b64b78fd21bfe84651d22",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:00.526Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:dc2fd30ba78d4470513c30cc4349d390769699e5e56e7547678f8678e1ae1c2d",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "SPCXx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:20:55.671Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:9977626ab0d6bec8fd6f7d7f4c995156286122b046e54cb33022ba1d47d49b6b",
        "reliability": "medium",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "SPCXx trades at a 30.2 basis point discount to its $140.63 reference price, with a token price of $140.20.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.421 tokens, showing negligible change from the baseline start of 559,998.446 tokens 11.5 hours prior.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 85.57% of total supply, indicating extreme concentration.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $3,808,153 represents a 4.88x turnover of the current $780,167 pooled liquidity.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "Premium volatility across the 11.5-hour baseline was substantial, ranging from -304 bps to +69 bps, suggesting ongoing price discovery challenges.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "If premium stabilizes within a 50 bps band for 24 consecutive hours"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "Current liquidity of $780,167 sits near the median of the baseline range ($664,880 to $851,536), indicating neither acute stress nor excess.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "If liquidity falls below $650k or exceeds $850k in next 6 hours"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_7",
        "statement": "The persistent discount combined with 85.6% holder concentration suggests the market prices in liquidity risk and limited float availability.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "If premium turns positive while concentration remains above 80%",
          "If concentration drops below 70% without premium compression"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_8",
        "statement": "Token price declined 1.53% over the past 24 hours despite premium volatility, indicating broader market pressure on the underlying reference.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056008Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T222056415Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222100526Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T222055671Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
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      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.6,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.6 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.16,
          "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "source_outages",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.06,
          "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "DEX price data unavailable (dex_price_usd: null) due to Dexscreener API rate limiting",
      "Transaction count metrics (txns_h1, txns_24h) and pair count not captured in current snapshot",
      "Top 5 holder composition unknown; may include liquidity pools and custodial accounts per observation",
      "Baseline spans only 11.5 hours, insufficient for definitive trend identification",
      "Failed Dexscreener source may introduce data gaps during high-volatility periods",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
      "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
    "provenance": {
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      "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T22:21:59.420Z"
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    "distribution": []
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