{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101M015C40DM6YCFA08",
    "slug": "hoodx-flips-to-persistent-premium-amid-liquidity-contraction-and-supply-",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "HOODx Flips to Persistent Premium Amid Liquidity Contraction and Supply Concentration",
    "dek": "Robinhood-backed equity token trades at 42.8bps premium after 11.5-hour baseline showed average discount, while top five wallets control 93.9% of supply and pool liquidity contracts 12.8%",
    "summary": "HOODx currently trades at a 42.77 basis point premium to the underlying HOOD equity reference price of $95.5061, marking a regime shift from the prior 11.5-hour baseline during which the token averaged a 7 basis point discount. The premium emerges despite a 12.8% contraction in DEX liquidity from $354,940.76 to $309,514.99 and persistently extreme supply concentration, with the top five token accounts holding 93.90886514009091% of the 597,392.60336707 token supply. Twenty-four hour volume of $88,326.01 generates 28.5% turnover against pooled liquidity, while supply remains static. The sustained positive premium over the trailing three hours suggests persistent demand pressure in the wrapper that is not being fully arbitraged, potentially constrained by the limited free float.",
    "thesis": "The tokenized equity has transitioned from a discount to a sustained premium regime concurrent with liquidity withdrawal, indicating potential market segmentation or creation mechanism frictions exacerbated by extreme holder concentration.",
    "whyItMatters": "Persistent premiums in tokenized equity products signal dislocation from underlying asset values, creating execution risk for liquidity providers and entry cost inflation for traders, while the 93.9% holder concentration concentrates price impact risk and limits arbitrage capacity.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_hoodx",
        "symbol": "HOODx",
        "name": "Robinhood xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "tokenized-equity",
      "premium-divergence",
      "liquidity-risk",
      "concentration-risk",
      "market-microstructure",
      "arbitrage-friction"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-14T10:11:08.823Z",
      "end": "2026-08-14T22:11:12.252Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-14T22:11:12.252Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "HOODx trades at +42.8bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": 42.8,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -7.0043399927359085
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:11:12.252Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.603 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 597392.60336707,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 597392.60336707,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:11:12.252Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $309,515 across ? pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 309515,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 328174
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:11:12.252Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 93.9% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.9390886514009091,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.9390886514009091
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:11:12.252Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $88,326 implies 0.29x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 88326,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T22:11:12.252Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439309969",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:11:07.879Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:2981486d6baa789a1689ba2a3a1eedb1e5a1606580a3ab1005550b9a10f6cf84",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:11:08.167Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:2a8229919785a51782756481424f911165738e9538b225fc3614a63e7a1be0c1",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:11:12.252Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:a6c20d79eadbf5a9053bef85ec41a71e8feb9d66e83dbe49d0765a88fa6f8a21",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ,XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ,XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T22:10:55.485Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:65ba4dbb7074ecf47502e1385c6e42f6e8bb0fccddd75fd8a51f37be0194ee8f",
        "reliability": "medium",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "HOODx currently trades at a 42.77 basis point premium to the reference equity price of $95.5061, with a token price of $95.9146.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 93.90886514009091% of the 597392.60336707 token circulating supply.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "The 24-hour DEX volume of $88,326.01 represents 28.5% turnover of the $309,514.99 in pooled liquidity.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The premium has shifted from an average discount of approximately -7 basis points across the 11.5-hour baseline to a sustained premium of roughly +40 to +45 basis points over the trailing three hours.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Subsequent data showing premium returning to negative territory within the next 24 hours",
          "Revelation that reference price feed is stale or erroneous"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "Pool liquidity has contracted 12.8% from the $354,940.76 observed at 11:11 UTC to the current $309,514.99.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Reversal of liquidity outflows within 24 hours",
          "Identification that liquidity reduction reflects pool migration rather than net withdrawal"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "The sustained premium and static supply suggest arbitrage may be constrained by limited free float resulting from extreme holder concentration.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221107879Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T221108167Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221112252Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T221055485Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Evidence of active primary issuance/redemption mechanisms operating with normal latency",
          "Proof that top 5 holders provide proportional market-making liquidity",
          "Regulatory disclosure of trading halts in the underlying HOOD equity"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.6,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.6 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.16,
          "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "source_outages",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.06,
          "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "Transaction count metrics (txns_h1, txns_24h) are unavailable due to source failures",
      "DEX-specific price feed (dex_price_usd) is null",
      "Number of trading pairs (pair_count) is unknown",
      "Twenty-four hour price change metric alignment with baseline timeframe is uncertain",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
      "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
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