{ "data": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101M013KEYEECW2N648", "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-40-5bps-premium-with-93-9-supply-concentration-2026-08-1", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "HOODx Trades at 40.5bps Premium with 93.9% Supply Concentration", "dek": "Elevated premium and extreme holder concentration define Robinhood xStock token dynamics amid $309k DEX liquidity.", "summary": "HOODx trades at +40.5 basis points above the HOOD reference price with 93.9% of supply held by the top five accounts. DEX liquidity stands at $309,520 with $88,488 in 24-hour volume, representing a 0.29x turnover ratio. The token price declined 3.67% over 24 hours despite the current premium expansion.", "thesis": "The token exhibits extreme supply concentration and volatile premium dynamics relative to its reference equity, suggesting limited float and potential price sensitivity to large trades.", "whyItMatters": "High holder concentration and low liquidity create conditions for significant price impact and premium volatility, exposing traders to execution risk and deviation from underlying equity value.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_hoodx", "symbol": "HOODx", "name": "Robinhood xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "referenceTicker": "HOOD", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "HOODx", "premium", "liquidity", "concentration", "tokenized-equity", "market-structure" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-14T09:41:04.789Z", "end": "2026-08-14T21:41:12.653Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-14T21:41:12.653Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "HOODx trades at +40.5bps versus the HOOD reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": 40.5, "unit": "bps", "baseline": -7.2813249814979635 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T21:41:12.653Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.603 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 597392.60336707, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 597392.60336707, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T21:41:12.653Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $309,520 across ? pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 309520, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 329210 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T21:41:12.653Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 93.9% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.9390886514009091, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.9390886514009091 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T21:41:12.653Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $88,488 implies 0.29x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 88488, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T21:41:12.653Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439305644", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T21:41:08.235Z", "dataHash": "sha256:2d12f2e0d178dfa302541339b80d441156d861bc39c0c175a8a81dc85595b75e", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T21:41:08.563Z", "dataHash": "sha256:eff7456c7ee41b18db1a7f90b72db9e8cdda3bcdb4d32a647554c78708b97838", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T21:41:12.653Z", "dataHash": "sha256:c3ce9d656ac865a380169dbb65220e4406d21e95fdfc1e49764a8029a9473b06", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ,XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ,XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T21:40:55.806Z", "dataHash": "sha256:9d1cd0931ea5fe3c465868ccfc0ae258e82610e8e9af62e95ab36cc29bf46320", "reliability": "medium", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "HOODx currently trades at a premium of 40.465890744776424 basis points above the HOOD reference price of $95.528.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ], "confidence": 1, "falsifiers": [] }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "The top five token accounts hold 93.90886514009091% of the total supply of 597,392.60336707 tokens.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ], "confidence": 1, "falsifiers": [] }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "Reported DEX liquidity totals $309,519.95077022136 across tracked pools.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ], "confidence": 1, "falsifiers": [] }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $88,488.09994786677 represents a 0.286 ratio relative to current liquidity.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ], "confidence": 1, "falsifiers": [] }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "The token price has declined 3.6651645245467392% over the past 24 hours despite the current premium expansion.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ], "confidence": 1, "falsifiers": [] }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "The premium has shifted from negative territory (as low as -92.70335341847256 bps at 15:11 UTC) to sustained positive levels above +40 bps in recent observations, indicating a regime change from discount to premium pricing.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "premium_bps returning to negative territory and sustaining below zero for multiple consecutive observations" ] }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "Extreme supply concentration combined with sub-$310k liquidity suggests limited effective float, creating conditions where moderate trading volumes can generate significant premium volatility.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108235Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T214108563Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214112653Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T214055806Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "top5_holder_share decreasing below 80%", "liquidity_usd increasing above $1 million while premium volatility persists", "large trades executing with minimal premium impact" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.62, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.16, "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "source_outages", "contribution": -0.08, "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.04, "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "notable", "limitations": [ "Transaction count metrics (txns_h1, txns_24h) and pair_count are unavailable due to dexscreener API rate limiting (HTTP 429), limiting visibility into trading activity granularity and market breadth.", "DEX price data is not available (dex_price_usd: null), requiring reliance on calculated premium versus reference price rather than direct DEX price observation.", "The 24-hour baseline spans only 11.5 hours rather than a full 24-hour period, which may not capture full intraday patterns or overnight risk factors.", "Top holder composition is unknown; concentrated holdings could represent exchange pools, custodial wallets, or insider holdings with different liquidity implications.", "Reference price sourcing methodology and update frequency are not specified, potentially affecting premium calculation accuracy during volatile periods.", "Liquidity figures represent pooled liquidity only and may not reflect actual market depth or hidden order availability.", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.", "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01M013HM0D4DRT5R6D", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-14T21:42:01.142Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-14T21:42:12.655Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:4551d1ca0825618a4109e57ef518f0fe5747a304af0b90e4ea1089ef08504451", "contentHash": "sha256:c54f9c9477e32a895854afc6cd6ca095acd3b60e2b0830345b858fceebd97269" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-trades-at-40-5bps-premium-with-93-9-supply-concentration-2026-08-1", "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T21:42:13.198Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T21:42:13.198Z" }, "distribution": [] }, "meta": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "generatedAt": "2026-08-15T00:47:07.099Z" }, "links": { "canonical": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/research/metis_0101M013KEYEECW2N648", "schema": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/schema" } }