{
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    "id": "metis_0101M00DA1TGKST78MN1",
    "slug": "hoodx-discount-widens-to-record-92-7bps-as-liquidity-and-volume-decline-",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "HOODx Discount Widens to Record -92.7bps as Liquidity and Volume Decline",
    "dek": "The tokenized Robinhood equity derivative has reached its largest discount to the reference price in 12 hours, while DEX liquidity and trading volume have contracted, signaling potential market maker fatigue.",
    "summary": "HOODx trades at a 92.7 basis point discount to HOOD stock, the widest margin in the observed 11.7-hour period. DEX liquidity fell 0.9% to $477,257 while 24-hour volume dropped 17.6% to $35,331. Top five holders control 93.9% of supply. A 99bps price discrepancy between Jupiter and the top pool indicates market fragmentation.",
    "thesis": "The token's persistent devaluation relative to its underlying equity, combined with thinning liquidity and declining volume, suggests deteriorating market conditions that may reflect reduced arbitrage capital or waning institutional support.",
    "whyItMatters": "For professional traders, the widening discount represents both a potential arbitrage opportunity and a risk signal. The high holder concentration and liquidity contraction increase execution costs and price impact, while the volatility in premium suggests the peg mechanism is under stress.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_hoodx",
        "symbol": "HOODx",
        "name": "Robinhood xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "HOODx",
      "tokenized-equity",
      "premium-divergence",
      "liquidity",
      "market-structure",
      "concentration-risk"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-14T03:01:06.572Z",
      "end": "2026-08-14T15:11:04.718Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-14T15:11:04.718Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "HOODx trades at -92.7bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -92.7,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -27.461406317731875
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T15:11:04.718Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.603 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 597392.60336707,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 597392.60336707,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T15:11:04.718Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $477,257 across 18 pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 477257,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 479905
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T15:11:04.718Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 93.9% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.9394328598069742,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.9394328598069742
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T15:11:04.718Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $35,331 implies 0.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 35331,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T15:11:04.718Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439249329",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T15:11:04.264Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:62948a99785c7fe0195638a872e2cd8e2b024bf7128933816b3d9c63303a6e82",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T15:11:04.649Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:a4e26def985288cd1d21212f42997b5e3998cc474f9b199bebf482db74863409",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
        "sourceId": "dexscreener",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T15:11:04.661Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:88d1d2be534668db91d7b7f0f9c4a0edb54dbb183bc4e7b46983d4c70edd5642",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T15:11:04.718Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:664a24f531e73951a1fb3c92ed42318b19f3f8fbc0541b7c825ef3f991a54a3d",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "HOODx currently trades at a discount of 92.7 basis points to the HOOD reference price, representing the widest divergence in the 11.7-hour baseline period.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "DEX liquidity has declined by $4,351 from the baseline opening level of $481,608.22 to the current $477,256.96, a 0.9% contraction.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "24-hour DEX volume has decreased 17.6% from the baseline average of approximately $42,869 to the current $35,331.10.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.85
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "Circulating supply has remained effectively stable at 597,392.603 tokens throughout the baseline period, with a net change of less than 0.0002%.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "The top five token holders control 93.94% of circulating supply, a concentration level that has remained above 93.9% throughout the baseline period.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.9
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "A 99 basis point price discrepancy exists between Jupiter pricing ($96.79) and the top DEX pool ($97.75), indicating market fragmentation.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_7",
        "statement": "The persistent discount widening, combined with declining liquidity and volume, suggests potential market maker fatigue or reduced arbitrage capital deployment.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "liquidity_usd increasing over next 6 hours",
          "premium_bps reverting toward -27bps baseline mean",
          "volume_24h_usd returning to $43k+ levels"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_8",
        "statement": "Hourly transaction count of 28 falls within the observed baseline range of 10 to 279, showing no systematic trend in trading frequency.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104264Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T151104649Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-14T151104661Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T151104718Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.8
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.7,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.7 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.24,
          "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "cross_venue_conflicts",
          "contribution": -0.1,
          "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.02,
          "explanation": "1 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "material",
    "limitations": [
      "The 11.7-hour baseline may not capture longer-term cyclical patterns in premium behavior.",
      "Top holder identities are unknown; concentration metric includes both pool and custodial accounts.",
      "Liquidity figures represent tracked DEX pools only and may exclude off-chain market making.",
      "Reference price sourcing methodology is not disclosed, limiting assessment of premium accuracy.",
      "The 99bps price discrepancy between sources may reflect stale data rather than actionable arbitrage.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
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