{ "data": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101KZZZJC5YGX9YNC7T", "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-39bps-discount-with-94-supply-concentration-2026-08-14-1", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "HOODx Trades at 39bps Discount with 94% Supply Concentration", "dek": "Token shows volatile premium dynamics and high holder concentration over 11.7-hour observation period", "summary": "HOODx currently trades at a -39.3 basis point discount to its HOOD equity reference price, with 24-hour volume of $109,062 representing 0.31x turnover of $354,941 in DEX liquidity. The five largest holders control 94% of the 597,393 token supply, while the premium has oscillated between +40 and -58 bps over the past 11.7 hours.", "thesis": "The combination of persistent negative premium, extreme supply concentration, and volatile price discovery suggests structural market inefficiencies that may limit arbitrage effectiveness and price stability for the HOODx token.", "whyItMatters": "For professional traders and market makers, these conditions indicate potential risks from limited free float, amplified price movements, and uncertain peg reliability, while also presenting potential opportunities if premium volatility can be exploited or if concentration risks are mispriced.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_hoodx", "symbol": "HOODx", "name": "Robinhood xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "referenceTicker": "HOOD", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "HOODx", "premium", "supply-concentration", "liquidity", "volatility", "arbitrage" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-13T23:01:06.167Z", "end": "2026-08-14T11:11:12.859Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-14T11:11:12.859Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "HOODx trades at -39.3bps versus the HOOD reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": -39.3, "unit": "bps", "baseline": -20.955564317327177 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:11:12.859Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 597392.60441428, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 597392.60441428, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:11:12.859Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $354,941 across ? pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 354941, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 354840 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:11:12.859Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.9399682145799211, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.9399682145799211 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:11:12.859Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $109,062 implies 0.31x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 109062, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T11:11:12.859Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439214695", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:11:08.472Z", "dataHash": "sha256:87e77d58b7194733db57f0f8e2daa19950ff127034acb07e1dbbfa2d8290c998", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:11:08.808Z", "dataHash": "sha256:7bc03167de0fd805e4ad1953798e00d06d2d5899803965fbbf949077f1ce7351", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:11:12.859Z", "dataHash": "sha256:9c303fe62eb10f8c1ecc794f0199346c7461dd9bec9e14f753cdef9cd6a534f3", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ,XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ,XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T11:10:55.871Z", "dataHash": "sha256:64cb0f17eadc2fe858a6200fbf1778d0a27507fcfb2381f0f2454b6a20187aac", "reliability": "medium", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "HOODx trades at a premium of -39.27263099277219 basis points relative to its reference price of 99.4 USD.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 0.9399682145799211 share of the total supply of 597392.60441428 tokens.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of 109061.61760949006 USD represents 0.3073x turnover of 354940.76080483524 USD in tracked liquidity.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "Premium volatility over the 11.7-hour baseline ranged from +40.062063606995025 bps to -57.857993268172876 bps, with the current -39.27263099277219 bps representing significant negative divergence from earlier baseline values.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Premium variance less than 20 bps over full period", "Current premium aligns with baseline median" ] }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "The 7.0243431355728525% 24-hour price increase occurred despite negative premium, suggesting token price movements are not solely driven by reference price tracking.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Price change correlates perfectly with reference", "Premium remains constant during price moves" ] }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "Extreme supply concentration (0.9399682145799211 top 5 holder share) may restrict effective arbitrage, contributing to persistent premium deviations.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "High concentration does not correlate with premium volatility", "Arbitrage volume exceeds concentration effects" ] }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "Circulating supply has remained stable at 597392.60441428 tokens throughout the observation period, with only negligible variation in the eighth decimal place.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108472Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T111108808Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111112859Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T111055871Z" ], "confidence": 1 } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.6, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.6 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.16, "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "source_outages", "contribution": -0.08, "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.06, "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "notable", "limitations": [ "DEX price data unavailable (dex_price_usd is null) limiting price source verification", "Transaction counts (txns_h1, txns_24h) and pair_count are not available, reducing activity granularity", "Failed data source (dexscreener) may introduce sampling bias in liquidity and volume measurements", "Top 5 holder composition unknown - could include liquidity pools or custodial accounts, affecting concentration interpretation", "Limited to 11.7-hour baseline; longer-term premium behavior remains unassessed", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.", "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01KZZZG25PSFXKFZ7J", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-14T11:11:59.221Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-14T11:12:28.064Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:d86a4f5e0cb8d5b9b6cf099b0aefd027c9ab698bcfd6ce98e42a4f28eafd7de8", "contentHash": "sha256:ee82d43c73dc1942dae1b8ffe41e53f96bbc0f93c02479b97d9cb629e45ae826" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-trades-at-39bps-discount-with-94-supply-concentration-2026-08-14-1", "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T11:12:28.862Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T11:12:28.862Z" }, "distribution": [] }, "meta": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "generatedAt": "2026-08-14T14:41:32.833Z" }, "links": { "canonical": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/research/metis_0101KZZZJC5YGX9YNC7T", "schema": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/schema" } }