{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101KZZWRRF1WAFV2NXG",
    "slug": "spcxx-trades-at-162bps-discount-amid-high-turnover-and-supply-concentrat",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "SPCXx Trades at 162bps Discount Amid High Turnover and Supply Concentration",
    "dek": "Token price divergence hits material threshold as 86% supply concentration meets 5.7x liquidity turnover.",
    "summary": "SPCXx is trading at a 161.96 basis point discount to its reference price, marking the lowest premium in the 11.7-hour observation period. The token exhibits extreme supply concentration with top 5 holders controlling 86.18% of supply, while 24-hour volume of $4.65M creates 5.71x turnover against $814K liquidity. Price declined 5.09% in 24 hours.",
    "thesis": "Material premium divergence combined with extreme supply concentration and high liquidity turnover indicates potential market instability for SPCXx.",
    "whyItMatters": "The 162bps discount represents a significant breakdown in price tracking, while concentrated holdings and high turnover create conditions for amplified volatility and potential liquidity crises.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_spcxx",
        "symbol": "SPCXx",
        "name": "SpaceX xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "SPCXx",
      "premium-divergence",
      "supply-concentration",
      "liquidity-turnover",
      "market-stress",
      "tokenized-equity"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-13T22:11:00.431Z",
      "end": "2026-08-14T10:21:00.625Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-14T10:21:00.625Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "SPCXx trades at -162bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -162,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -24.46836950339457
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T10:21:00.625Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.457 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 559998.45727562,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 559998.45727562,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T10:21:00.625Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $814,470 across ? pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 814470,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 820316
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T10:21:00.625Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 86.2% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.8618018182108673,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.8618018182108673
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T10:21:00.625Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $4,653,878 implies 5.71x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 4653878,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T10:21:00.625Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439207455",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T10:20:56.060Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:130e204eaafb7b7372a6b50f6b3f28fedec5443d80bdc71109a3e00edee1f2f8",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T10:20:56.550Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:a93e23befce50502627c3f6c21a652452fdd5d6778296ed9fcf47ccf6169b532",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T10:21:00.625Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:22bb3c2203bd1c31b53c93654ccd1fc7605ed20ffbfb0ab59453b36fef483ad0",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "SPCXx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T10:20:55.694Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:ec988da882b80d8d5f0e6bf03ad6cf12739230e63eb9f0cd67e5dbb303929cea",
        "reliability": "medium",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "SPCXx trades at a 161.96 basis point discount to its SPCX reference price of $142.36, with a token price of $140.05.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "The 24-hour DEX volume of $4,653,878 represents a 5.71x turnover ratio relative to current liquidity of $814,470.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 86.18% of the total circulating supply of 559,998.457 tokens.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The current premium of -161.96 bps sits below the prior 11.7-hour baseline minimum of -159.42 bps, indicating a significant downward shift in price alignment.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "The material premium divergence may reflect either deteriorating confidence in the token's tracking mechanism or a temporary liquidity dislocation.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "premium_bps reverting toward baseline median within 6 hours",
          "liquidity_usd increasing above $830,000",
          "reference_price_usd decreasing to narrow the gap"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "Liquidity has declined from a baseline peak of $830,265 to $814,470 while volume remained elevated, suggesting potential strain on market depth.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_7",
        "statement": "The token's price has decreased 5.09% over the past 24 hours.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056060Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T102056550Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102100625Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T102055694Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.6,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.6 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.16,
          "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "source_outages",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.06,
          "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "material",
    "limitations": [
      "Dexscreener data unavailable (HTTP 429) limits granular DEX price discovery visibility",
      "Hourly transaction counts (txns_h1) intermittently null, reducing short-term activity precision",
      "Absence of pair_count data prevents assessment of DEX venue diversification",
      "24-hour transaction count (txns_24h) not reported, limiting full activity analysis",
      "Single reference price source may not capture all market dynamics",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
      "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
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