{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101KZZ9APZA496KH84E",
    "slug": "crclx-premium-narrows-to-27-6-bps-amid-high-volume-and-holder-concentrat",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "CRCLx Premium Narrows to 27.6 bps Amid High Volume and Holder Concentration",
    "dek": "Tokenized equity trades above reference price with $4.8M daily turnover and 53.7% top-5 holder control",
    "summary": "CRCLx trades at a 27.64 basis point premium to its reference equity with 821,079 tokens in circulation. Daily volume of $4.8M represents 1.59x liquidity turnover, while the top five holders control 53.7% of supply. Premium volatility has been extreme over the past 11.5 hours, ranging from -41.3 to +160.9 bps.",
    "thesis": "CRCLx exhibits persistent premium valuation and high trading velocity despite stable supply, indicating potential market inefficiencies or structural demand factors.",
    "whyItMatters": "The sustained premium and concentration risk may affect price discovery and arbitrage efficiency, while high turnover suggests strong speculative or hedging interest in this tokenized equity instrument.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_crclx",
        "symbol": "CRCLx",
        "name": "Circle xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "referenceTicker": "CRCL",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "tokenized-equity",
      "premium-valuation",
      "liquidity-analysis",
      "holder-concentration",
      "market-efficiency",
      "CRCLx"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-13T16:41:08.032Z",
      "end": "2026-08-14T04:41:03.253Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-14T04:41:03.253Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "CRCLx trades at +27.6bps versus the CRCL reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": 27.6,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": 18.576443741475845
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T04:41:03.253Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.773 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 821079.77263712,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 821079.77263712,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T04:41:03.253Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $3,002,788 across ? pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 3002788,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 2967702
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T04:41:03.253Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 53.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.5368084238381513,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.5368084238381513
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T04:41:03.253Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $4,775,240 implies 1.59x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 4775240,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-14T04:41:03.253Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "CRCLx token supply at slot 439158244",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T04:41:02.309Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:634daa08dfbe6f73600d96db5c78c5b5e82f02560df5d32159dae8cd61962c00",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "CRCLx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T04:41:03.213Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:f51b465adc2107f3d7f5187374d97b34921b17d392747fedbebe9ffc4869a986",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T04:41:03.253Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:6fe770b5dcefda682790b5dce8e11aa134ac9e5671ae72803cd3eb8f01f62339",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "CRCLx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-14T04:40:55.726Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:fb3ded6c99c5f82b931c5a2af8730d69b96d875a59b328795ddcaa39ad92d405",
        "reliability": "medium",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "CRCLx trades at a 27.64 basis point premium to the CRCL reference price of $75.01, with a token price of $75.22.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.773 tokens, showing no change from the prior 11.5-hour baseline period.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "The 24-hour volume of $4,775,240 represents a 1.59x turnover ratio relative to current pooled liquidity of $3,002,788.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts control 53.68% of circulating supply.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "Premium volatility over the past 11.5 hours has been substantial, ranging from -41.29 bps to +160.94 bps, with the current 27.64 bps reading moderately above the baseline average of 18.58 bps.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "Concentration among top 5 holders has increased by 45 basis points over the observation period, from 53.23% to 53.68%.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_7",
        "statement": "Sustained premium and high volume-to-liquidity ratio may reflect constrained arbitrage mechanisms or structural demand for tokenized exposure, though incomplete DEX data limits verification.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "dex_price_usd",
          "pair_count",
          "txns_h1",
          "txns_24h"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_8",
        "statement": "The token price increased 6.05% over the past 24 hours, consistent with the positive premium to reference price.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044102309Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-14T044103213Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044103253Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-14T044055726Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.58,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.58 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.16,
          "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "source_outages",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "4 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "DEX price data unavailable due to API rate limiting from dexscreener",
      "Transaction count metrics intermittently null across baseline period",
      "Pair count data missing, limiting assessment of market fragmentation",
      "Reference price source methodology not disclosed",
      "Top holder identities unknown; concentration includes pools and custodial accounts",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
      "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
    "provenance": {
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      "publishedAt": "2026-08-14T04:43:49.098Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-08-14T04:43:49.098Z"
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