{
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    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101KZYNSJNVDNNSTGV1",
    "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-42bps-discount-with-94-supply-concentration-2026-08-13-2",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "HOODx Trades at 42bps Discount with 94% Supply Concentration",
    "dek": "Robinhood xStock token shows persistent discount to reference equity, extreme holder concentration, and collapsing hourly activity despite stable 24h volume.",
    "summary": "HOODx trades at -42.2 basis points to its $99.54 reference price with 94.3% of supply held by five accounts. Liquidity stands at $475,455 across 18 DEX pairs, supporting $38,572 in 24h volume (0.08x turnover). Hourly transactions collapsed to 1 from a 24h average of 117, while premium volatility over the past 11.5 hours ranged from -269.9bps to +61.7bps, indicating weak arbitrage efficiency.",
    "thesis": "Extreme supply concentration and volatile premiums suggest structural inefficiencies in HOODx's peg mechanism, while collapsing hourly activity raises questions about sustained market interest despite stable 24h volume metrics.",
    "whyItMatters": "The 94.3% supply concentration creates governance and liquidity risks, while persistent discount and premium volatility indicate that arbitrage mechanisms are not functioning effectively, potentially undermining the token's utility as an equity proxy.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_hoodx",
        "symbol": "HOODx",
        "name": "Robinhood xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "equity-token",
      "supply-concentration",
      "premium-volatility",
      "liquidity-analysis",
      "market-structure",
      "arbitrage-inefficiency"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-13T11:01:16.615Z",
      "end": "2026-08-13T23:01:06.167Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-13T23:01:06.167Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "HOODx trades at -42.2bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -42.2,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -36.437324868233965
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T23:01:06.167Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 597392.60441429,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 597392.60441429,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T23:01:06.167Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $475,455 across 18 pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 475455,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 459897
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T23:01:06.167Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.3% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.9429069112094549,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.9429069112094549
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T23:01:06.167Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $38,572 implies 0.08x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 38572,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T23:01:06.167Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439109220",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T23:01:05.903Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:ef8611328dbd382a84aba86fa725e02c3a69739b2260c03e438b8c5590f0baea",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T23:01:06.128Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:247bc9d0425055b3bfec12ffcf5afd04588146941fb3e46feb07e4fee5731682",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
        "sourceId": "dexscreener",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T23:01:06.138Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:ace882f519c1e9a97294fc6659b677c20a359adb31a2e13fe34d610ca2931cc9",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T23:01:06.167Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:e90e0748d2539f55ec48abddde583298882667820ef79038a5c27e5856d28162",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "HOODx trades at $99.12, a 42.2 basis point discount to the $99.54 HOOD reference price.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts control 94.29% of circulating supply.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "DEX liquidity of $475,455 across 18 pairs supported $38,572 in 24h volume, implying 0.08x liquidity turnover.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "Hourly transaction count collapsed to 1 in the latest snapshot from a 24h baseline average of 117, indicating a near-halt in trading activity.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "txns_h1 could be a data lag rather than true activity cessation",
          "Hourly sampling may miss bursts of activity"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "Premium volatility over the 11.5-hour baseline ranged from -269.9bps to +61.7bps, suggesting weak arbitrage mechanisms.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
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          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Reference price updates may be delayed",
          "DEX price feeds may have temporary distortions"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "The 94.3% supply concentration among top five holders may indicate custodial or protocol-controlled wallets, but creates single-point-of-failure risk if these represent individual actors.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Top holders could be verified smart contracts rather than individuals",
          "Concentration may be inflated by exchange wallet aggregation"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_7",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.604 tokens, effectively stable over the observation period.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
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          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
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        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_8",
        "statement": "Token price increased 4.28% over the past 24 hours.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230105903Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T230106128Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T230106138Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T230106167Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.84,
      "band": "high",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.84 (high).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.24,
          "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.06,
          "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "Top holder identities are unknown; concentration may include protocol contracts or exchange wallets",
      "Reference price update frequency and methodology is not specified",
      "Single hourly transaction may reflect data sampling issues rather than true activity cessation",
      "No information on which specific DEX pools comprise the 18 pairs",
      "Premium calculation methodology may vary between data sources",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
    "provenance": {
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