{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101KZY1R91XTC00CG84",
    "slug": "crclx-premium-moderates-after-intraday-volatility-liquidity-turnover-rem",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "CRCLx Premium Moderates After Intraday Volatility, Liquidity Turnover Remains Active",
    "dek": "The tokenized equity trades at +31.9bps premium with $4.99M liquidity and $3.38M daily volume, while top-five concentration holds steady at 53.2%",
    "summary": "CRCLx shows a 31.94 basis point premium to its reference price as of 17:11 UTC, moderating from extreme intraday volatility that saw premiums range from -86.8bps to +374.4bps over the prior 11.5 hours. The token maintains $4.99M in DEX liquidity with $3.38M in 24-hour volume, yielding a 0.68x turnover ratio. Top-five holders control 53.23% of supply, a concentration level that has remained stable throughout the observation period. Transaction activity remains elevated at 1,001 hourly transactions, though below earlier peaks exceeding 2,700.",
    "thesis": "CRCLx has stabilized at a modest premium following extreme intraday volatility, maintaining healthy liquidity metrics and stable ownership concentration despite elevated trading activity.",
    "whyItMatters": "The moderation in premium volatility suggests temporary dislocations have eased, while the high liquidity turnover and concentrated ownership structure indicate both active institutional participation and potential governance risks that merit monitoring.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_crclx",
        "symbol": "CRCLx",
        "name": "Circle xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "referenceTicker": "CRCL",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "tokenized-equity",
      "premium-volatility",
      "liquidity-analysis",
      "concentration-risk",
      "market-structure",
      "CRCLx"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-13T05:11:08.515Z",
      "end": "2026-08-13T17:11:04.402Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-13T17:11:04.402Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "CRCLx trades at +31.9bps versus the CRCL reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": 31.9,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": 22.693902877182747
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T17:11:04.402Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 821,079.773 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 821079.77263836,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 821079.77263836,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T17:11:04.402Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $4,994,924 across 27 pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 4994924,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 4998237
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T17:11:04.402Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 53.2% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.5323273173048325,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.5323273173048325
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T17:11:04.402Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,380,631 implies 0.68x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 3380631,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T17:11:04.402Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "CRCLx token supply at slot 439058835",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T17:11:03.383Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:350b7bfbbe2f9827c425307d447e9e8c78c0fc9e7ce821ee21f050d13da8ff1d",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "CRCLx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T17:11:04.177Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:fead9d6dc710f9151801344871bbb213b4fc5e7565547f2891aa0c32a6d70ce8",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
        "sourceId": "dexscreener",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "CRCLx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T17:11:04.325Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:bd50358c4b2449d89c7f3a662552c2031c8488c3e25f337ec830a603f65e8e4c",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "CRCLx token price and CRCL reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T17:11:04.402Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:ff47bb1853f4d9d97ae35f1e258f7f9b190143d7d0e2f5bbb21c33c77393f065",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "CRCLx trades at a 31.94 basis point premium to the CRCL reference price of $71.04, with a DEX price of $71.09 and token price of $71.27.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "Premium volatility has been extreme over the 11.5-hour baseline period, ranging from -86.8 bps to +374.4 bps, with the current 31.94 bps reading representing a moderation from both the +374.4 bps peak at 13:40 UTC and the -86.8 bps trough at 14:41 UTC.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Baseline data does not contain the stated premium extremes",
          "Calculation of range is mathematically incorrect"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "The 24-hour volume of $3.38M represents a 0.68x turnover ratio relative to current DEX liquidity of $4.99M, indicating active trading relative to available pool depth.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "Top-five holder concentration stands at 53.23% of circulating supply, a level that has remained stable within a 53.2-53.7% band across all 24 baseline observations, suggesting consistent ownership structure despite price volatility.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Baseline shows top5_holder_share variance exceeding the stated band",
          "supply_ui_amount has changed during the period"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "Hourly transaction count of 1,001 remains elevated but has decelerated from intraday peaks exceeding 2,700 transactions per hour observed at 13:40 UTC and 14:41 UTC, suggesting a cooling in trading intensity from earlier volatile periods.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Baseline does not contain txns_h1 peaks exceeding 2,700",
          "Current txns_h1 is not actually lower than baseline peaks"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "The token's 24-hour price change of +1.86% reflects outperformance versus the reference price, with the $71.27 token price exceeding both the $71.04 reference and $71.09 DEX price.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171103383Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T171104177Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T171104325Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T171104402Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.84,
      "band": "high",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.84 (high).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.24,
          "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.06,
          "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "Analysis covers only 11.5 hours of baseline data, insufficient for longer-term trend assessment",
      "Several baseline snapshots show null liquidity_usd values, potentially skewing averages and trend analysis",
      "top5_holder_share metric does not distinguish between pool, custodial, or individual whale accounts, limiting concentration risk assessment",
      "24-hour volume metric may not capture typical trading patterns or structural liquidity changes",
      "No information on methodology or reliability of reference_price_usd calculation",
      "pair_count of 27 pools may not represent all trading venues, potentially missing significant off-chain or CEX activity",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
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        {
          "provider": "openvecta",
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