{ "data": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101KZXM58405WS79503", "slug": "spcxx-spacex-xstock-trades-at-150bps-discount-as-concentration-hits-84-7", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "SpaceX xStock Trades at 150bps Discount as Concentration Hits 84.7%", "dek": "SPCXx shows persistent negative premium to reference equity with top 5 holders controlling 84.7% of supply, while 24-hour volume reaches $3.48M against $883K liquidity.", "summary": "SPCXx, the tokenized SpaceX equity derivative, currently trades at $144.39 versus a $146.60 reference price, representing a -150.9 basis point discount. The current premium of -150.86 bps marks a material widening from the 11.5-hour baseline average of -21.3 bps, with values ranging from +40.7 to -150.9 bps across 24 snapshots. Concentration remains elevated at 84.7% held by top 5 accounts, up from 84.6% at baseline start. Despite thin liquidity of $883,471, the market generated $3.48 million in 24-hour volume, implying 3.94x liquidity turnover. Transaction frequency data is unavailable for the current period.", "thesis": "The token trades at a structural discount to its reference equity with widening divergence, elevated holder concentration, and efficient liquidity utilization suggesting informed flow rather than distressed selling.", "whyItMatters": "Persistent negative premium with high concentration creates execution risk for large orders and raises questions about price discovery efficiency in tokenized equity markets.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_spcxx", "symbol": "SPCXx", "name": "SpaceX xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8", "referenceTicker": "SPCX", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "SPCXx", "tokenized-equity", "premium-divergence", "concentration-risk", "liquidity-turnover", "SpaceX", "on-chain-derivatives", "market-microstructure" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-13T01:10:51.293Z", "end": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "SPCXx trades at -150.9bps versus the SPCX reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": -150.9, "unit": "bps", "baseline": -21.31647122007336 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.577 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 559998.57650477, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 559998.57650477, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $883,471 across ? pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 883471, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 910583 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 84.7% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.8471664429564474, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.8471664429564474 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $3,478,013 implies 3.94x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 3478013, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 439024321", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T13:10:56.106Z", "dataHash": "sha256:7a8115ca45822ad17b40c7b62d97ff937066ec744bbf81dd95937b2d8661e675", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T13:10:56.571Z", "dataHash": "sha256:4a9394eab25ff777d17401f61008ff5ea78d3652fcef7e92d85c025b8a3638e7", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T13:11:00.655Z", "dataHash": "sha256:8dfbba2d776f7e7aa40e88287d20025505d2838d25cf63e98242d1d9c28eb9e4", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "SPCXx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8,XsueG8BtpquVJX9LVLLEGuViXUungE6WmK5YZ3p3bd1,XsbEhLAtcf6HdfpFZ5xEMdqW8nfAvcsP5bdudRLJzJp", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T13:10:55.733Z", "dataHash": "sha256:8e5e387badb1f17ccf8ba741743473beea44ab11e061461f6ea574cde4f87d9a", "reliability": "medium", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "SPCXx trades at -150.8646014841873 basis points relative to the SPCX reference price of $146.6", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z" ], "confidence": 0.95, "falsifiers": [] }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "The current -150.9 bps premium represents a 129.5 bps widening from the 11.5-hour baseline average of -21.3 bps", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z" ], "confidence": 0.9, "falsifiers": [ "Baseline calculation error; verify arithmetic mean of 24 historical premium_bps values" ] }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "Top 5 holder concentration increased from 84.58% to 84.72% over the 11.5-hour observation window", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z" ], "confidence": 0.85, "falsifiers": [ "Supply UI amount changed -0.00002% between measurements; concentration change may reflect price movement in pool valuations rather than net accumulation" ] }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "24-hour volume of $3,478,013 against $883,471 liquidity implies 3.94x turnover ratio", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z" ], "confidence": 0.9, "falsifiers": [] }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "The premium has exhibited high volatility with range of 191.5 bps (-150.9 to +40.7) across 24 snapshots, suggesting price discovery instability", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Volatility may reflect legitimate reference price movement rather than token mispricing; requires cross-checking SPCX equity price stability" ] }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "Sustained negative premium with elevated volume/liquidity ratio indicates directional selling pressure rather than liquidity-driven mispricing", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056106Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T131056571Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131100655Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T131055733Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Volume could represent two-sided flow with temporary imbalance; verify trade directionality", "Reference equity may have gapped up while token lagged; check timestamp alignment" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.62, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.62 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.16, "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "source_outages", "contribution": -0.08, "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.04, "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "material", "limitations": [ "Transaction count data (txns_h1, txns_24h) unavailable for current snapshot prevents assessment of order flow intensity", "DEX price feed unavailable due to API rate limiting from dexscreener", "Pool count and specific venue distribution unknown; liquidity may be concentrated in single DEX", "11.5-hour baseline insufficient to establish weekly or monthly premium patterns", "Token holder identity unknown; top 5 may include liquidity pools, custodians, or protocol treasuries rather than concentrated speculative positions", "Reference price timestamp alignment not verified; $146.60 may be stale versus real-time equity quote", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.", "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01KZXKYPF8QXNKJP5H", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T13:13:29.655Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T13:14:34.955Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:2df1d5316d0ac606175cb2d4949bad74461f0203c11c5a1fc71255719b5f1f04", "contentHash": "sha256:5c937de0bd6d33d2e7f24414568be3513a696445313abf2d17b22e2aa27fbdab" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/spcxx-spacex-xstock-trades-at-150bps-discount-as-concentration-hits-84-7", "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T13:14:35.520Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T13:14:35.520Z" }, "distribution": [] }, "meta": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "generatedAt": "2026-08-13T15:27:11.575Z" }, "links": { "canonical": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/research/metis_0101KZXM58405WS79503", "schema": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/schema" } }