{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101KZXEA73DJARPD0GJ",
    "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-77-5bps-discount-with-94-4-supply-concentration-2026-08-",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "HOODx Trades at -77.5bps Discount with 94.4% Supply Concentration",
    "dek": "Tokenized Robinhood stock trades 77 basis points below reference price amid 94.4% supply concentration and modest liquidity turnover.",
    "summary": "HOODx trades at a -77.5bps discount to HOOD equity, with 94.4% of supply held by top five accounts. $453.6k liquidity across 13 DEX pairs facilitated $29.7k in 24h volume (0.07x turnover). Hourly transactions increased to 187 from a 24-hour average of 146, while 24h price declined 0.89%.",
    "thesis": "The token trades at a material discount to its reference equity, with extreme supply concentration and low liquidity turnover indicating fragile market structure.",
    "whyItMatters": "High concentration risk and low liquidity turnover create conditions for volatile price movements and potential manipulation, while persistent discount suggests market pricing inefficiency.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_hoodx",
        "symbol": "HOODx",
        "name": "Robinhood xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "HOODx",
      "Robinhood",
      "tokenized-equity",
      "premium-divergence",
      "concentration-risk",
      "liquidity",
      "market-structure"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-12T23:31:22.727Z",
      "end": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "HOODx trades at -77.5bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -77.5,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -17.607230555159067
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 597392.61845611,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 597392.61845611,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $453,572 across 13 pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 453572,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 454896
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.9443602152331716,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.9443602152331716
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $29,716 implies 0.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 29716,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 439009932",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.274Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:1e750fb4b970d39ac5eaa4e66c3f54e14fa67facdb21567773a9d248b6beb246",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.604Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:c73d1c9eb7c258080f8f9b190c12168d0c7195eb2c961ce47e2821bffb19ae99",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
        "sourceId": "dexscreener",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.615Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:139e26b3c6dace445fa5f28898ba188be8005391c2db59a29883004d5f8cbba7",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T11:31:04.656Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:5a098b56c76444dfcb025f6be4e41c5e300d8ec1a25348f49e22d5327387999e",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7"
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      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "HOODx trades at a -77.5 basis point discount to the reference HOOD equity price, a material widening from the baseline average of -17.6bps.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Reference price feed inaccuracy",
          "Stale DEX price data",
          "Arbitrage mechanism failure"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "The top five token accounts hold 94.4% of circulating supply, indicating extreme concentration risk.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1,
        "falsifiers": [
          "DEX pool addresses misclassified as holders",
          "Holder aggregation methodology error"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "24-hour volume of $29.7k represents 0.07x turnover of $453.6k pooled liquidity, suggesting modest trading activity.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.95,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Liquidity mismeasurement",
          "Volume inflation from wash trading"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "Current hour transactions of 187 exceed the 24-hour average of 146, indicating elevated short-term activity.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Bot-driven transaction burst",
          "Small-value transaction spam"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "Token price declined 0.89% over 24 hours, consistent with the observed discount to reference price.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Reference price manipulation",
          "Exchange API data error"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "Circulating supply has remained constant at 597,393 tokens throughout the 11.5-hour baseline period.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104274Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
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        "confidence": 1,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Uncaptured token lock/unlock events",
          "Supply reporting lag"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_7",
        "statement": "The token trades across 13 DEX pairs, suggesting moderate market fragmentation.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T113104604Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T113104615Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T113104656Z"
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        "confidence": 0.9,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Inactive pairs included",
          "Double-counting across data sources"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.9,
      "band": "high",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.9 (high).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.24,
          "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "material",
    "limitations": [
      "Premium calculation depends on reference price feed accuracy and timeliness",
      "Holder concentration metric may include DEX pool addresses, potentially overstating true holder concentration",
      "24-hour volume and liquidity figures may include wash trading or non-economic activity",
      "Transaction counts do not distinguish between trade sizes or economic significance",
      "Single-day observation window limits assessment of longer-term trends",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
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