{ "data": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101KZWVEEGABN4JXWGT", "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-53-5bps-premium-amid-extreme-supply-concentration-2026-0", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "HOODx Trades at 53.5bps Premium Amid Extreme Supply Concentration", "dek": "Robinhood xStock token commands a modest premium to its reference equity price while 94% of supply remains concentrated among five holders, raising execution and governance concerns.", "summary": "HOODx trades at a +53.5 basis point premium to the underlying HOOD equity reference price as of 06:01 UTC, a notable reversal from the baseline average discount of -3.7bps over the prior 11.5 hours. The token's circulating supply of 597,393 tokens is extremely concentrated, with the top five holders controlling 94.36% of supply. DEX liquidity across 12 pools totals $453,710, generating $33,997 in 24-hour volume for a low 0.075x turnover ratio. Hourly transaction count has declined to 34 from a baseline peak of 277, while price sources show an 85bps discrepancy between Jupiter ($95.52) and the top pool ($94.71).", "thesis": "The current premium reflects short-term market dislocation rather than sustained demand, given low liquidity turnover, extreme supply concentration, and volatile premium dynamics throughout the 11.5-hour baseline period.", "whyItMatters": "Extreme supply concentration creates single-point-of-failure risk for price discovery and governance, while the low liquidity turnover ratio indicates that even modest buy or sell pressure could cause significant premium volatility, undermining the token's utility as an equity proxy.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_hoodx", "symbol": "HOODx", "name": "Robinhood xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "referenceTicker": "HOOD", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "premium-divergence", "supply-concentration", "liquidity-risk", "equity-token", "market-structure", "price-discovery", "turnover-analysis", "concentration-risk" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-12T18:01:22.012Z", "end": "2026-08-13T06:01:26.170Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-13T06:01:26.170Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "HOODx trades at +53.5bps versus the HOOD reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": 53.5, "unit": "bps", "baseline": -3.7207529962329455 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:01:26.170Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 597392.61845611, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 597392.61845611, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:01:26.170Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $453,710 across 12 pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 453710, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 456947 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:01:26.170Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.9436445887142084, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.9436445887142084 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:01:26.170Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $33,997 implies 0.07x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 33997, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T06:01:26.170Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 438962500", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:01:25.712Z", "dataHash": "sha256:2ef95a69da364f1b11db5b3b9bb76074390688396d3fd111b7c75a21c7dc0c65", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:01:26.119Z", "dataHash": "sha256:82c09cd6b18e5564f30bc7be5bae6cb90a1580171fb62da2167fdca825cbc6b9", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "sourceId": "dexscreener", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:01:26.127Z", "dataHash": "sha256:00da8db86ceb5b7c09b4d73422a7ea7d6945854101d983314020827c3fd221b1", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T06:01:26.170Z", "dataHash": "sha256:b911551818e9c82af43f26a80bf35de3e4c958ba6447b9ae58403837fe8d3722", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "HOODx trades at a 53.48 basis point premium to the HOOD reference price of $95.014.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "The current premium marks a notable reversal from the baseline period's average discount of -3.7bps, representing a 57.2bps shift.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "If premium_bps reverts below 10bps in next 3 observations", "If reference_price_usd moves more than 100bps" ] }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "The top five token holders control 94.36% of the 597,392.618 token circulating supply.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $33,997.03 represents a 0.075x turnover ratio against $453,710.45 of pooled liquidity.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "Hourly transactions have declined to 34 from a baseline peak of 277 observed 6 hours prior.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "If txns_h1 exceeds 200 in the subsequent hour" ] }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "Jupiter's token price of $95.52213829489726 diverges 85 basis points from the top pool DEX price of $94.71.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "The combination of 94.36% supply concentration and 0.075x liquidity turnover suggests that large holder actions could disproportionately impact price discovery.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060125712Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T060126119Z", "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-13T060126127Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T060126170Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "If top5_holder_share drops below 85% within 24 hours", "If volume_24h_usd increases above $250,000" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.66, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.66 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.24, "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "cross_venue_conflicts", "contribution": -0.1, "explanation": "1 unresolved cross-source disagreement(s)." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "24 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.06, "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "notable", "limitations": [ "Baseline liquidity data is incomplete with 14 of 24 snapshots showing null values, limiting trend analysis.", "Transaction counts are missing for 7 baseline observations, potentially skewing activity assessments.", "Pool-level composition and depth data not provided; $453,710 aggregate liquidity may be concentrated in few pools.", "Reference price sourcing methodology and update frequency are undisclosed, affecting premium reliability.", "Top holder identities are unknown; cannot distinguish between exchange pools, custodians, or individual holders.", "No on-chain order book depth data available to assess market impact costs beyond turnover ratio.", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. 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