{ "data": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101KZWP87QFZ8RSSRTM", "slug": "hoodx-discount-widens-to-224bps-as-liquidity-thins-2026-08-13-043156", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "HOODx Discount Widens to 224bps as Liquidity Thins", "dek": "Tokenized Robinhood equity trades at record discount with 94% supply held by top five wallets, raising execution risk concerns.", "summary": "HOODx trades at -223.94bps to HOOD reference price, a material deviation from its 10.8-hour baseline range. With 94.36% supply concentration and only 0.27x liquidity turnover, the $333,963 DEX pool shows signs of stress. Supply remains stable at 597,393 tokens while 24h volume of $91,748 suggests limited trading depth.", "thesis": "The extreme discount and concentrated ownership create a fragile liquidity environment where large holders' actions could amplify price dislocations.", "whyItMatters": "High supply concentration combined with wide premiums increases execution risk for traders and may signal underlying market structure issues in tokenized equity markets.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_hoodx", "symbol": "HOODx", "name": "Robinhood xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "referenceTicker": "HOOD", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "HOODx", "premium-arbitrage", "liquidity-risk", "concentration", "tokenized-equity", "market-structure", "dex", "solana" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-12T17:40:35.048Z", "end": "2026-08-13T04:31:09.394Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:09.394Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "HOODx trades at -223.9bps versus the HOOD reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": -223.9, "unit": "bps", "baseline": -6.79033372942019 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:09.394Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 597392.61845611, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 597392.61845611, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:09.394Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $333,963 across ? pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 333963, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 333963 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:09.394Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.9436445887142084, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.9436445887142084 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:09.394Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $91,748 implies 0.27x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 91748, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:09.394Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 438949527", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:04.957Z", "dataHash": "sha256:5578b31200df2daea8ee08e1b73fff263de87a17766a2d5af83f2d69955c0645", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:05.349Z", "dataHash": "sha256:795ed18e87f23632af7510935fa6d4987abf644b3e213c9022ebe5be95165979", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:09.394Z", "dataHash": "sha256:39c19b1e48df4c6edc011349dcb8739ec282a35e748e96e9a405aa02a4b72e0d", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ,XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ,XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T04:30:55.645Z", "dataHash": "sha256:5c2c979f6366aa5d95dbcedd55efac180c93c8c2a34aed9501153bbd941acbc0", "reliability": "medium", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "HOODx trades at a discount of 223.94 basis points to the HOOD reference price of $95.014.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens, unchanged throughout the 10.8-hour baseline period.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "DEX liquidity totals $333,963 with 24-hour volume of $91,748, implying 0.27x liquidity turnover.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.36% of supply, indicating extreme holder concentration.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "The current -223.94 bps premium represents a material deviation from the baseline range of +72.33 to -63.41 bps, suggesting a structural shift rather than normal volatility.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Subsequent premiums revert to baseline range within 24 hours", "Reference price data feed error identified" ] }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "The extreme discount may reflect liquidity stress or forced selling by large holders given the 94.36% supply concentration.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Large holder wallets show no outflows", "Alternative fundamental catalyst identified", "DEX liquidity increases substantially" ] }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "The token price of $92.886 is $2.128 below the reference price, consistent with the -223.94 bps discount.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_8", "statement": "The 0.27x liquidity turnover ratio suggests limited trading activity relative to pool size, potentially exacerbating price impact during large trades.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043104957Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T043105349Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043109394Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T043055645Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "Turnover ratio increases above 1.0x in subsequent periods", "Volume data excludes major off-chain settlements" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.6, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.6 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.16, "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "source_outages", "contribution": -0.08, "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "23 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.06, "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "material", "limitations": [ "DEX data incomplete: dex_price_usd and pair_count unavailable due to HTTP 429 errors", "Transaction counts (txns_h1, txns_24h) not captured in current snapshot", "Baseline liquidity data sparse: only 2 of 23 snapshots contain liquidity_usd", "Top5 holder share includes pool and custodial accounts, may overstate true concentration", "Reference price feed source and update frequency not disclosed", "24h volume may include wash trading not filtered by source", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.", "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01KZWP6T8PZYZQ3XNA", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:43.172Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:55.393Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:c37de292a5ecf2f5c13693eca07a4977da37781b11d0a731811cf45c68cdfc71", "contentHash": "sha256:c4e14e6ba8de804d1abfe6471a5e64ec4fc95f2cf949dc33a2df32abc3cdcbcc" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-discount-widens-to-224bps-as-liquidity-thins-2026-08-13-043156", "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:56.143Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T04:31:56.143Z" }, "distribution": [] }, "meta": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "generatedAt": "2026-08-13T06:25:11.651Z" }, "links": { "canonical": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/research/metis_0101KZWP87QFZ8RSSRTM", "schema": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/schema" } }