{ "data": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "id": "metis_0101KZWJVY11Q9QPTD2W", "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-63bps-discount-as-whale-concentration-hits-94-2026-08-13", "version": 1, "status": "published", "category": "market", "title": "HOODx Trades at 63bps Discount as Whale Concentration Hits 94%", "dek": "The tokenized Robinhood equity derivative has swung from a 72bps premium to a 63bps discount over 9.8 hours, with just $334k liquidity supporting $94k daily volume.", "summary": "Robinhood xStock (HOODx) is trading at a -63.40633050439879 basis point discount to its reference equity price as of 03:31 UTC, representing the widest divergence observed across 21 baseline snapshots spanning 9.8 hours. The token shows extreme supply concentration with top five holders controlling 94.36% of the 597,392.61845611 token supply. DEX liquidity stands at $333,962.744340753 with 24-hour volume of $94,011.1732050493, implying 0.28x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "thesis": "HOODx exhibits acute premium volatility and extreme holder concentration, creating potential mispricing opportunities alongside significant market structure risks.", "whyItMatters": "The 126 basis point swing from peak premium (+72.3bps) to current discount (-63.4bps) indicates fragile price discovery mechanisms. With 94.36% of supply held by five addresses, the token faces governance centralization and manipulation risks that could amplify volatility and detach pricing from the underlying equity reference.", "assets": [ { "id": "asset_hoodx", "symbol": "HOODx", "name": "Robinhood xStock", "assetType": "tokenized_equity", "chain": "solana", "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "referenceTicker": "HOOD", "issuerId": "entity_backed" } ], "entities": [ { "id": "entity_backed", "name": "Backed Assets", "type": "issuer" } ], "tags": [ "HOODx", "premium-divergence", "concentration-risk", "liquidity-analysis", "tokenized-equity" ], "timeWindow": { "start": "2026-08-12T17:40:35.048Z", "end": "2026-08-13T03:31:12.798Z", "observedAt": "2026-08-13T03:31:12.798Z" }, "observations": [ { "id": "obs_price_divergence_1", "kind": "price_divergence", "statement": "HOODx trades at -63.4bps versus the HOOD reference price.", "metric": { "name": "premium_bps", "value": -63.4, "unit": "bps", "baseline": 3.380722876353743 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T03:31:12.798Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_supply_change_2", "kind": "supply_change", "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).", "metric": { "name": "supply_ui_amount", "value": 597392.61845611, "unit": "tokens", "baseline": 597392.61845611, "delta": 0 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T03:31:12.798Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3", "kind": "liquidity_level", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $333,963 across ? pools.", "metric": { "name": "liquidity_usd", "value": 333963, "unit": "USD", "baseline": 333963 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T03:31:12.798Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4", "kind": "holder_concentration", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).", "metric": { "name": "top5_account_share", "value": 0.9436445887142084, "unit": "ratio", "baseline": 0.9436445887142084 }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T03:31:12.798Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ] }, { "id": "obs_volume_context_5", "kind": "volume_context", "statement": "24h DEX volume of $94,011 implies 0.28x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "metric": { "name": "volume_24h_usd", "value": 94011, "unit": "USD" }, "occurredAt": "2026-08-13T03:31:12.798Z", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ] } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 438940900", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T03:31:08.393Z", "dataHash": "sha256:ae7d99b52040a74b00726d045725cf56237bf0626d2a411bb73a97c4f0dd133f", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "sourceId": "solana_rpc", "sourceType": "onchain", "title": "HOODx largest token accounts", "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders", "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T03:31:08.749Z", "dataHash": "sha256:7b4e702f6122857dbb76685abe7232bf4a76552a06925dc390127061f5b87244", "reliability": "primary", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T03:31:12.798Z", "dataHash": "sha256:517e92cdd17b6213a19314d893bb75991a442e2dc7b142201a6e2fabff4d07ca", "reliability": "high", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] }, { "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z", "sourceId": "jupiter", "sourceType": "market", "title": "HOODx pooled liquidity and 24h volume (DexScreener unavailable)", "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/tokens/v2/search?query=Xs8S1uUs1zvS2p7iwtsG3b6fkhpvmwz4GYU3gWAmWHZ,XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ,XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg", "publisher": "Jupiter price service", "retrievedAt": "2026-08-13T03:30:55.824Z", "dataHash": "sha256:add004c5ccedef64ea806fb0d04858d1e4f32365ba2390e6bfc982f38722228f", "reliability": "medium", "supportsClaimIds": [ "clm_1", "clm_2", "clm_3", "clm_4", "clm_5", "clm_6", "clm_7", "clm_8" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "clm_1", "statement": "HOODx trades at a -63.40633050439879 basis point discount to the HOOD reference price of $95.014, with a token price of $94.4115510913455.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_2", "statement": "Circulating supply is 597392.61845611 tokens, unchanged from prior baseline observations.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ], "confidence": 0.5 }, { "id": "clm_3", "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals 333962.744340753 USD across pools.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_4", "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of 94011.1732050493 USD implies 0.28x turnover of pooled liquidity.", "type": "calculation", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_5", "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 0.9436445887142084 of supply, indicating extreme concentration.", "type": "fact", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ], "confidence": 1 }, { "id": "clm_6", "statement": "The current -63.40633050439879bps premium represents the widest discount observed in the 9.8-hour baseline, which ranged from +72.33468564067446bps premium to -63.40633050439879bps discount.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ], "confidence": 0.5 }, { "id": "clm_7", "statement": "The token's 24-hour price change of -0.479690300100532% aligns with the discount to reference, suggesting consistent downward pressure.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ], "confidence": 0.5 }, { "id": "clm_8", "statement": "The acute premium swing and high holder concentration suggest liquidity constraints may be driving price divergence from the underlying equity.", "type": "hypothesis", "evidenceIds": [ "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108393Z", "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-13T033108749Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033112798Z", "ev_jupiter_2026-08-13T033055824Z" ], "confidence": 0.5, "falsifiers": [ "If DEX liquidity increases beyond 500000 USD and the premium remains negative", "If the reference equity price declines to match the token price without corresponding token outflows", "If on-chain analysis reveals the top holders are passive custodians rather than active traders" ] } ], "counterEvidence": [], "methodology": { "methods": [ "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts", "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume", "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service", "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines" ], "transformations": [ "UTC clock normalization", "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch" ], "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset", "exclusions": [ "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed" ], "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0" }, "confidence": { "score": 0.58, "band": "moderate", "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.58 (moderate).", "factors": [ { "name": "source_coverage", "contribution": 0.16, "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle." }, { "name": "source_outages", "contribution": -0.08, "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection." }, { "name": "baseline_depth", "contribution": 0.08, "explanation": "21 prior observation(s) available as baseline." }, { "name": "verification_uncertainty", "contribution": -0.08, "explanation": "4 claim(s) could not be fully verified." } ] }, "impact": "notable", "limitations": [ "DEX price data is unavailable (dex_price_usd: null) despite active trading, limiting price discovery analysis", "Hourly transaction counts (txns_h1) and 24-hour counts (txns_24h) are not captured, obscuring trading frequency patterns", "Pair count data is missing, preventing assessment of market fragmentation", "Failed DEXScreener API calls indicate potential data reliability issues", "Top holder identities are unknown; concentration metric includes both pools and custodial accounts without differentiation", "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.", "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg." ], "disclosures": [ "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.", "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset." ], "relatedResearchIds": [], "provenance": { "runId": "run_01KZWJS1YVEAWG671R", "agentVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0", "modelRecords": [ { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking", "purpose": "synthesis", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T03:31:55.661Z" }, { "provider": "openvecta", "model": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash", "purpose": "verification", "promptVersion": "chat-1", "completedAt": "2026-08-13T03:32:46.328Z" } ], "sourceSnapshotHash": "sha256:d5bf3172e3deac18c5be7549a8872febbc24c2d675b02b831e03227dcb240296", "contentHash": "sha256:abefa4b13f9f136ffdc2c805ed6f4937d94a4b09e7becd4f98170b10987d9ddb" }, "publication": { "canonicalUrl": "https://metisagent.co/research/hoodx-trades-at-63bps-discount-as-whale-concentration-hits-94-2026-08-13", "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T03:32:47.265Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-13T03:32:47.265Z" }, "distribution": [] }, "meta": { "schemaVersion": "1.0", "generatedAt": "2026-08-13T05:17:55.254Z" }, "links": { "canonical": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/research/metis_0101KZWJVY11Q9QPTD2W", "schema": "https://metisagent.co/api/v1/schema" } }