{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101KZVNP8B28G3R3R4A",
    "slug": "hoodx-trades-at-34bps-discount-with-94-supply-concentration-2026-08-12-1",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "HOODx Trades at 34bps Discount with 94% Supply Concentration",
    "dek": "Tokenized Robinhood stock shows persistent discount and extreme holder concentration across 13 DEX pools with modest liquidity turnover.",
    "summary": "HOODx trades at a 34.2 basis point discount to reference HOOD equity price at $94.73, with supply highly concentrated (94.4% in top five accounts). DEX liquidity stands at $455,633 across 13 pools, while 24-hour volume of $130,610 implies limited turnover at 0.29x. Transaction activity has decreased from the prior baseline period.",
    "thesis": "The token exhibits structural market characteristics of significant price divergence from underlying asset and extreme supply centralization, suggesting limited retail participation and potential liquidity constraints.",
    "whyItMatters": "The persistent discount and high concentration indicate potential risks for traders including price discovery inefficiencies, susceptibility to whale manipulation, and challenges in maintaining peg stability, which are critical for any tokenized equity product's credibility.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_hoodx",
        "symbol": "HOODx",
        "name": "Robinhood xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "referenceTicker": "HOOD",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "HOODx",
      "tokenized-equity",
      "premium-divergence",
      "supply-concentration",
      "liquidity-analysis",
      "market-structure"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-12T17:40:35.048Z",
      "end": "2026-08-12T19:01:35.901Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-12T19:01:35.901Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "HOODx trades at -34.2bps versus the HOOD reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -34.2,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -11.739779436946062
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T19:01:35.901Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190122118Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 597392.61845691,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 597392.61845691,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T19:01:35.901Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $455,633 across 13 pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 455633,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 455638
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T19:01:35.901Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190122118Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.4% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.9440797465219606,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.9440797465219606
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T19:01:35.901Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190122118Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $130,610 implies 0.29x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 130610,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T19:01:35.901Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190122118Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx token supply at slot 438867843",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T19:01:22.118Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:4b310ab0198fee3834002e32cb7c8d7c89857e313ef76d4a5114239babe5636b",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "HOODx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T19:01:35.491Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:748ebda3a1f667e18951706dd92b889ba1feb737dd9645581d40eb20a7e8dd1e",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
        "sourceId": "dexscreener",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T19:01:35.791Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:d4d49aed8980a77a9e4a85aeb1d414728e13166a73d6d1ff31f34b081755dee7",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "HOODx token price and HOOD reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsvNBAYkrDRNhA7wPHQfX3ZUXZyZLdnCQDfHZ56bzpg",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T19:01:35.901Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:0268afb82d0dcbe53dbb3d3c85d975b509b66e27c37650406e940342032e74ee",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
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          "clm_2",
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          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "HOODx trades at $94.73, representing a 34.2 basis point discount to the $95.06 reference HOOD equity price.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190122118Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "The discount has narrowed by 17.9 basis points from the prior baseline observation of -52.07 bps.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190122118Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 597,392.618 tokens, unchanged from the prior baseline observation.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190122118Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 94.4% of total supply, indicating extreme concentration.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190122118Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "Total DEX liquidity is $455,633 across 13 pools.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190122118Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "24-hour volume of $130,610 implies a 0.29x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_7",
        "statement": "The concentration of 94.4% of supply among the top five accounts suggests significant centralization that may include DEX pools and custodial wallets, limiting true circulating supply available for trading.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190122118Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Top holders could be protocol-owned liquidity or burn addresses",
          "Custodial accounts may represent aggregated retail holdings rather than whale concentration",
          "The metric may double-count pool liquidity and individual wallets"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_8",
        "statement": "The 17.9 basis point narrowing of the discount suggests reduced selling pressure, though this cannot be confirmed without longer-term data.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190122118Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T190135491Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T190135791Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T190135901Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Could be temporary market microstructure artifact over the 81-minute observation window",
          "May reflect changes in reference price rather than token price movement",
          "Could be due to liquidity fluctuations rather than sentiment shift"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
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      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.82,
      "band": "high",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.82 (high).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.24,
          "explanation": "3 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "cross_venue_agreement",
          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.04,
          "explanation": "4 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.04,
          "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "notable",
    "limitations": [
      "Baseline spans only 81 minutes across four snapshots, preventing trend analysis or statistical significance testing",
      "High holder concentration metric includes DEX pools and custodial accounts, potentially misrepresenting true distribution",
      "Single reference price source may not capture full market depth for underlying equity",
      "No information on trading venues or market maker activity that could explain premium dynamics",
      "Limited context on token minting/burning mechanisms or redemption processes",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
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