{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101KZVJ74MTQEMS2W1M",
    "slug": "mstrx-premium-widens-to-18-4bps-as-supply-concentration-remains-elevated",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "MSTRx Premium Widens to 18.4bps as Supply Concentration Remains Elevated",
    "dek": "Tokenized MSTR derivative shows modest premium expansion over 21 minutes while 59.1% of supply remains concentrated among top five accounts across 29 DEX pools.",
    "summary": "MSTRx, a tokenized derivative of MicroStrategy stock, currently trades at an 18.41 basis point premium to its $95.45 reference price, up from 5.78 bps 21 minutes prior. The token maintains 423,099.718 tokens in circulating supply with $995,022 in DEX liquidity across 29 pools. 24-hour volume of $311,136 represents 0.31x liquidity turnover. The five largest holders control 59.1% of supply, indicating significant concentration. Transaction activity shows 234 hourly transactions against a 24-hour total of 5,242.",
    "thesis": "The 12.6 basis point expansion in MSTRx premium over a brief 21-minute window, combined with high supply concentration among top holders, suggests potential pricing inefficiency or liquidity constraints in the tokenized derivative market.",
    "whyItMatters": "Premium volatility in tokenized equity derivatives can signal arbitrage opportunities or structural market frictions. High holder concentration may limit price discovery and amplify volatility, particularly when liquidity is modest relative to concentrated positions.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_mstrx",
        "symbol": "MSTRx",
        "name": "MicroStrategy xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ",
        "referenceTicker": "MSTR",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "MSTRx",
      "tokenized-equity",
      "premium",
      "concentration",
      "liquidity",
      "price-discovery",
      "derivatives",
      "arbitrage"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-12T17:40:32.963Z",
      "end": "2026-08-12T18:01:05.962Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-12T18:01:05.962Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "MSTRx trades at +18.4bps versus the MSTR reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": 18.4,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": 12.09475059502072
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T18:01:05.962Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T180105591Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T180105859Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 423,099.718 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 423099.71833539,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 423099.71833539,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T18:01:05.962Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T180105591Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T180105859Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_liquidity_level_3",
        "kind": "liquidity_level",
        "statement": "Tracked DEX liquidity totals $995,022 across 29 pools.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "liquidity_usd",
          "value": 995022,
          "unit": "USD",
          "baseline": 995022
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T18:01:05.962Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T180052230Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T180105591Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T180105859Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_4",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 59.1% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.5912351913723933,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.5912351913723933
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T18:01:05.962Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T180105859Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_volume_context_5",
        "kind": "volume_context",
        "statement": "24h DEX volume of $311,136 implies 0.31x turnover of pooled liquidity.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "volume_24h_usd",
          "value": 311136,
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T18:01:05.962Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T180052230Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "MSTRx token supply at slot 438859223",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T18:00:52.230Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:5fde062bed44ed61c02d25db62929b84de88087856762a7469a92da42767c988",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
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          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T180105591Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "MSTRx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T18:01:05.591Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:36daed4d87ecf426f60b9ccf85d25c7436d9357bd61ddbe1f0e6fc5937e59597",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T180105859Z",
        "sourceId": "dexscreener",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "MSTRx DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "url": "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ",
        "publisher": "DexScreener aggregated venue data",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T18:01:05.859Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:6a5e1377b710968c40e8185c2bf13e84f5d381d5ad55cb8e59fc2b1893ea08ec",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "MSTRx token price and MSTR reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=XsP7xzNPvEHS1m6qfanPUGjNmdnmsLKEoNAnHjdxxyZ",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T18:01:05.962Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:1d6d9bb9f7723d8b9bcc6d4296d5d5752fe45b1108c38aba4dc8ba489a372ac8",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
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          "clm_2",
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          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6",
          "clm_7",
          "clm_8"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "MSTRx trades at a premium of 18.41 basis points to the MSTR reference price of $95.45, with a token price of $95.63.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T180105859Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 423,099.718 tokens, unchanged from the prior observation 21 minutes earlier.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T180052230Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T180105591Z",
          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T180105859Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "The token is traded across 29 DEX pools with aggregate liquidity of $995,022.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T180052230Z",
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          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "24-hour DEX volume of $311,136 represents 0.31 times the current pooled liquidity.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T180052230Z",
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          "ev_dexscreener_2026-08-12T180105859Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts control 59.1% of circulating supply.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "The MSTRx premium increased by 12.63 basis points over the 21-minute observation period, rising from 5.78 bps to 18.41 bps.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
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          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T180105962Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Short observation window; could reflect transient market conditions rather than sustained repricing."
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_7",
        "statement": "With 234 transactions in the most recent hour and 5,242 over 24 hours, recent hourly activity appears consistent with the broader daily pattern.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
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        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Single-hour snapshot may not represent typical activity; transaction distribution across hours may be uneven."
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_8",
        "statement": "The 59.1% supply concentration among top five holders may indicate limited distribution and could amplify volatility during large trades relative to available liquidity.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
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        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "Top holders may be protocol-owned liquidity or custodial wallets rather than active traders; concentration metric includes pool holdings."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
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      "transformations": [
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      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
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    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.78,
      "band": "high",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.78 (high).",
      "factors": [
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          "contribution": 0.24,
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        },
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          "contribution": 0.08,
          "explanation": "Independent price sources agree within tolerance."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.02,
          "explanation": "2 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.06,
          "explanation": "3 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "informational",
    "limitations": [
      "Observation window spans only 21 minutes, insufficient to establish trends or typical volatility patterns.",
      "Baseline data lacks historical depth for meaningful statistical analysis.",
      "Top holder identities and their classification (pools, custodians, traders) are unknown.",
      "Liquidity distribution across the 29 pools is not specified; concentration may vary by venue.",
      "No information on minting/redemption mechanisms or arbitrage pathways to reference price.",
      "Single data point for hourly transactions may not represent typical intraday patterns.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
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