{
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "id": "metis_0101KZSYRNMWRMF8FQMQ",
    "slug": "spcxx-spacex-xstock-spcxx-trades-at-15-2-bps-discount-with-concentrated-",
    "version": 1,
    "status": "published",
    "category": "market",
    "title": "SpaceX xStock SPCXx Trades at -15.2 bps Discount With Concentrated Supply",
    "dek": "SPCXx tokenized equity trades below its SPCX reference price, while top five holders control 85.8% of the 560,000 token supply.",
    "summary": "SPCXx, a tokenized representation of SpaceX equity, currently trades at $132.78 versus a reference price of $132.98, resulting in a -15.2 basis point discount. The token has a circulating supply of 559,998.714 tokens with extremely concentrated ownership: the top five holders account for 85.8% of total supply. No on-chain liquidity, volume, or transaction data is available due to source failures.",
    "thesis": "SPCXx exhibits modest price discounting relative to its reference, but extreme ownership concentration and absent market depth data create significant valuation uncertainty.",
    "whyItMatters": "For institutional participants, the -15 bps spread suggests minimal arbitrage friction, yet the 86% top-holder concentration and missing liquidity metrics obscure true marketability and exit risk.",
    "assets": [
      {
        "id": "asset_spcxx",
        "symbol": "SPCXx",
        "name": "SpaceX xStock",
        "assetType": "tokenized_equity",
        "chain": "solana",
        "contractAddress": "Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "referenceTicker": "SPCX",
        "issuerId": "entity_backed"
      }
    ],
    "entities": [
      {
        "id": "entity_backed",
        "name": "Backed Assets",
        "type": "issuer"
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "tokenized-equity",
      "spacex",
      "concentrated-ownership",
      "illiquidity",
      "basis-trading"
    ],
    "timeWindow": {
      "start": "2026-08-12T03:00:29.236Z",
      "end": "2026-08-12T03:00:29.919Z",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-12T03:00:29.919Z"
    },
    "observations": [
      {
        "id": "obs_price_divergence_1",
        "kind": "price_divergence",
        "statement": "SPCXx trades at -15.2bps versus the SPCX reference price.",
        "metric": {
          "name": "premium_bps",
          "value": -15.2,
          "unit": "bps",
          "baseline": -15.182540333769532
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T03:00:29.919Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029314Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029872Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T030029919Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_supply_change_2",
        "kind": "supply_change",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.714 tokens (+0% vs the prior observation).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "supply_ui_amount",
          "value": 559998.7142574,
          "unit": "tokens",
          "baseline": 559998.7142574,
          "delta": 0
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T03:00:29.919Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029314Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029872Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T030029919Z"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "obs_holder_concentration_3",
        "kind": "holder_concentration",
        "statement": "The five largest token accounts hold 85.8% of supply (pools and custodial accounts included).",
        "metric": {
          "name": "top5_account_share",
          "value": 0.8577374869501724,
          "unit": "ratio",
          "baseline": 0.8577374869501724
        },
        "occurredAt": "2026-08-12T03:00:29.919Z",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029314Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029872Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T030029919Z"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029314Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "SPCXx token supply at slot 438730605",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T03:00:29.314Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:2748bc8e4a63045b37b00a0df35db04effdb610192a323321a1b43173157d49e",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029872Z",
        "sourceId": "solana_rpc",
        "sourceType": "onchain",
        "title": "SPCXx largest token accounts",
        "url": "https://solscan.io/token/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8#holders",
        "publisher": "Solana mainnet (direct RPC)",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T03:00:29.872Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:3ba1a4d4e779602435ba000744049100e6920515a1a8b3af611f00b8221de0c1",
        "reliability": "primary",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T030029919Z",
        "sourceId": "jupiter",
        "sourceType": "market",
        "title": "SPCXx token price and SPCX reference price",
        "url": "https://lite-api.jup.ag/price/v3?ids=Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8",
        "publisher": "Jupiter price service",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T03:00:29.919Z",
        "dataHash": "sha256:6dcde29ea3d726dfbe382fe18b2a76c9e31629adf26556e432c81ab1c61012ae",
        "reliability": "high",
        "supportsClaimIds": [
          "clm_1",
          "clm_2",
          "clm_3",
          "clm_4",
          "clm_5",
          "clm_6"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "id": "clm_1",
        "statement": "SPCXx token price is $132.78119787205404 versus reference price of $132.9831 USD.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029314Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029872Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T030029919Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1,
        "falsifiers": []
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_2",
        "statement": "SPCXx trades at a discount of -15.182540333769532 basis points to its SPCX reference price.",
        "type": "calculation",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029314Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029872Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T030029919Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1,
        "falsifiers": []
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_3",
        "statement": "Circulating supply is 559,998.7142574 tokens.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029314Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029872Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T030029919Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1,
        "falsifiers": []
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_4",
        "statement": "Top five holders control 85.77374869501724% of total token supply.",
        "type": "fact",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029314Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029872Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T030029919Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 1,
        "falsifiers": []
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_5",
        "statement": "The -15.2 bps discount likely reflects modest liquidity constraints rather than fundamental value disagreement, given the tokenized equity wrapper structure.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029314Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029872Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T030029919Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "liquidity_usd data showing deep on-chain markets",
          "volume_24h_usd indicating active two-way flow",
          "large reference price dislocation from primary market"
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "clm_6",
        "statement": "Concentrated ownership at 85.8% creates latent supply overhang risk if major holders reduce positions.",
        "type": "hypothesis",
        "evidenceIds": [
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029314Z",
          "ev_solana_rpc_2026-08-12T030029872Z",
          "ev_jupiter_2026-08-12T030029919Z"
        ],
        "confidence": 0.5,
        "falsifiers": [
          "top5_holder_share represents locked custodial or treasury accounts with transfer restrictions",
          "gradual vesting schedules preventing sudden supply shocks",
          "holder composition being diversified institutional accounts rather than single entities"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": [],
    "methodology": {
      "methods": [
        "Direct Solana RPC verification of token supply and largest accounts",
        "Cross-venue aggregation of DEX pools, liquidity, and volume",
        "Token-versus-reference price comparison from an independent price service",
        "Deterministic anomaly detection against stored observation baselines"
      ],
      "transformations": [
        "UTC clock normalization",
        "Raw payload hashing for every source fetch"
      ],
      "comparisonWindow": "Stored observation history for this asset",
      "exclusions": [
        "Sources that failed during collection are recorded, not imputed"
      ],
      "codeVersion": "metis-agent/0.2.0"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "score": 0.55,
      "band": "moderate",
      "rationale": "Confidence is computed from source coverage, cross-venue agreement, baseline depth, and independent verification. This run scored 0.55 (moderate).",
      "factors": [
        {
          "name": "source_coverage",
          "contribution": 0.16,
          "explanation": "2 independent sources fed this cycle."
        },
        {
          "name": "source_outages",
          "contribution": -0.08,
          "explanation": "1 source(s) failed during collection."
        },
        {
          "name": "baseline_depth",
          "contribution": 0.01,
          "explanation": "1 prior observation(s) available as baseline."
        },
        {
          "name": "verification_uncertainty",
          "contribution": -0.04,
          "explanation": "2 claim(s) could not be fully verified."
        }
      ]
    },
    "impact": "informational",
    "limitations": [
      "No liquidity_usd metric available; unable to assess bid-ask depth or slippage for position entry or exit.",
      "No volume_24h_usd or transaction count data due to dexscreener API failure; market activity level is unknown.",
      "No dex_price_usd available; cannot verify on-chain price discovery versus reference.",
      "Top five holder identities and account types (custodial, treasury, locked) are unspecified; concentration risk assessment is incomplete.",
      "No historical premium_bps trend available; cannot determine if -15.2 bps is typical or anomalous.",
      "Largest-account concentration includes liquidity pools and custodial accounts; it is not a beneficial-owner distribution.",
      "Sources unavailable this cycle: dexscreener: [dexscreener] HTTP 429 from https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/tokens/Xs3oZwbHvqis4NYcf4YKWmEia2eC84wSiVrcYcTqpH8."
    ],
    "disclosures": [
      "This is informational research produced by an automated system. It may contain errors, omissions, or delayed data.",
      "Nothing here is individualized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset."
    ],
    "relatedResearchIds": [],
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